2021's Oscar season was always going to be weird. The ways the pandemic shook up the film industry are innumerable. As the end-of-the-year award season started to ramp up, it was clear that we still had quite a while to go before we're out of this. Obviously, the traditional release path for an Oscar contender - dropped into a few theaters in the big cities before a slow roll-out a few weeks later - wasn't going to work this year. The Academy was well aware of this and made the shocking decision to extend the deadline and delay the entire ritual by a whole month.
It's now March 15. Normally, we'd be about a week out from the ceremony itself. In 2021, I'm just now getting my Oscar Watchlist together. The whole situation has me so fucked up that I wasn't even sure what day the nominations were going to be announced on.
There's another reason why 2021's Oscar season is weird, for me personally. I don't really pay attention to streaming. It's not that I consider straight-to-streaming a less legitimate release strategy than playing in theaters. It's just that there's always so much coming out on streaming services, that it's hard for me to keep track of it all. Since the pandemic started, we've especially had a glut of content shoveled at us all the time. This means I feel barely aware of many of the nominated films this year.
Nevertheless, I'm excited for Oscar. I'm excited to start my race to watch all the nominated reviews. I'm extremely excited to review many of these pictures. Let's kick off Film Thoughts 2021 Oscar coverage with my traditional list of wildly inaccurate predictions.
BEST PICTURE:
If you had asked me a year ago, what the frontrunner for Best Picture would be, I would've said David Fincher's "Mank." It's the latest release from a critically acclaimed filmmaker, who has been repeatedly nominated without winning. Moreover, it's another self-congratulatory celebration of Hollywood itself, detailing the behind-the-scenes drama of what's considered one of the greatest movies of all time. Should've been a shoe-in?
Alas, the trauma of living through the Trump administration has left us all - Academy voters included - far more aware of pressing social issues. Themes like race, gender, and class inequality characterized almost all the top candidates for Best Picture this year. "Mank" still scored nominations in most of the major categories but it's not going to win.
Instead, a scrappy indie by the name of "NomadLand" has fought its way to the top of the heap. Chloe Zhao's tale of poverty and on-the-road living has earned the best reviews of the year. After sweeping through various other award shows, it now seems primed to win Best Picture.
Or does it? There are a few likely titles snapping at "NomadLand's" heels. "Judas and the Black Messiah" seems to have won quite a lot of praise and is the fan favorite in a number of cinephile circles. In the time before a flick like "Parasite" proved the Academy was changing, Aaron Sorkin's "Trial of the Chicago 7" would also seem like a sure-shot Best Picture favorite. These are important movies about important historical events, which still resonate in our modern world. AMPAS loves that kind of shit, right? Of course, they do. (Even if Sorkin remains a divisive talent.)
Still, this years slate of BP nominations include several kinds of movies that might've been locked out in past years. "Minari" is a low-key drama largely in Korean, with no major stars. "Promising Young Woman" is a thriller that was once slotted into a March release date, destined to be forgotten come Oscar time. Instead, both have their shot at Tinseltown's top honor. 2021 truly is a strange time to be alive.
This year's Best Picture nods are rounded out with more typical Oscar fair. "The Father" is a prestidge-y drama about aging, mental illness, and familial bonds. It stars two previous Oscar winners and is largely built around their performances. If "Sound of Metal" wasn't about rock music, it too would fit the typical Oscar image. After all, it's a drama about an artist overcoming a physical disadvantage. Neither seem likely to take home the top prize but it's good to know that, even as the layout of the Academy has changed, some themes always resonate.
Official Prediction:
"NomadLand"
BEST ACTOR:
When Chadwick Boseman died unexpectedly last year, it shocked many people. As a Marvel superhero, he was already an icon. The news that he had secretly been fighting cancer while building himself an A-List career made him a posthumous hero. There's no doubt that the echoing memory of Boseman's shocking death is having an effect on Awards Season this year. His final performance in "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom" has won several high-profile awards this year and seems like the likely choice for Best Actor. Even someone as cynical as me, prone to thoughts like "he's only going to win because he died," isn't in the mood to argue about it.
If it wasn't for that tragedy, several other candidates would rise to the top. The Academy loves it when a living legend like Anthony Hopkins, who has long-since slid into low-stakes paycheck roles, comes back and proves they still got it. That's obviously what "The Father" is and, in any other year, he'd be a likely winner. The same can be said for Riz Ahmed in "Sound of Metal." (See the aforementioned note about the Academy loving the "artist with disabilities" genre.)
If Gary Oldman hadn't just won a few years back, his take on Hollywood legend Herman Mankiewicz would probably have more buzz behind it. Steven Yuen, a potential star-in-the-making, rounds out the category but I don't think this is his year.
Official Prediction:
Chadwick Boseman in "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"
BEST ACTRESS:
Best Actress is one of the more interesting categories this year. There's no clear-cut winner. Viola Davis and Frances McDormand are legends who have all won in recent memory, making repeat wins here seem unlikely. (Even with the considerable buzz behind "Ma Rainey" and "NomadLand.") Vanessa Kirby, meanwhile, was kind of a surprise nomination. "Pieces of a Woman" has gotten somewhat mixed reviews and little buzz, compared to the other competing films.
That really narrows it down to two possibilities. Andra Day was a surprise winner at the Golden Globe recently, for "The United Stares Vs. Billie Holiday." That seems to be the classical dilemma of a strong performance in an otherwise mediocre movie, about a pop culture icon. Normally, that's the kind of thing that wins Oscar. Yet, in the post "#MeToo" Hollywood, a movie like "Promising Young Woman" has been catching a lot of attention. Carey Mulligan has proven herself to be an Academy favorite in the past and her performance here has a mountain of hype behind it. It comes down to these two but I think Mulligan is currently nudging into the lead.
Official Prediction:
Carey Mulligan in "Promising Young Woman."
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
It's always a little weird when a movie gets multiple nominations in the same category. The case of Daniel Kaluuya and LaKeith Stanfield competing against each other for "Judas and the Black Messiah" strikes me as odd. By most accounts, LaKeith is the film's lead and shouldn't even be in this category anyway. Kaluuya seems to be the favorite to win anyway but I feel like a double nomination may split voters,
If that does turn out to be true, there's the chance of someone else going home with this little gold man. Even with the diversification of the Academy voting body, people still love it when an actor known for comedy pulls off a strong dramatic performance. That's the kind of narrative that could favor Sacha Baron Cohen in "Trial of the Chicago 7."
The rest of mostly surprise choices. "One Night in Miami" seemed like a movie that was primed to be more of an awards contender but didn't quite break through, leaving Leslie Odom Jr. the sole nominee. Paul Raci, meanwhile, is a character actor who has mostly done work in television and now suddenly finds himself thrusts into the limelight for "Sound of Metal." (A movie the Academy liked way more than I expected.) Honestly, I'm kind of rooting for him, even if I know little about the guy.
Official Prediction:
Daniel Kaluuya for "Judas and the Black Messiah."
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Every Oscar year has its Villain Movie and this year it's "Hillbilly Elegy." The reviews have been toxic. Film Twitter hates it. The guy who wrote the original book has proven himself to be a piece of shit. We, as a culture, have largely evolved past the need for movies about how charming poverty is. And yet, the A-list talent of Amy Addams, Glenn Close, and Ron Howard has gotten the film some award season attention. Luckily, the AMPAS mostly didn't take the bait. Close is the film's one of only two nominees for the film.
There's also no Sure Thing in the Best Supporting Actress category. Amanda Seyfried seems to be the most beloved thing about "Mank" and has scooped up some awards. Olivia Colman's growing reputation as one of the greats of our time seems to be building towards her winning another Oscar for "The Father." Youn Yuh-Jung, from "Minari," has pretty much no chance of winning but people sure to like her.
Colman will probably get it but there is a Dark Horse candidate. Maria Bakalova genuinely gave one of my favorite performances last year, "Borat Subsequent Moviefilm." Who would've thought that a "Borat" sequel would've been home to a weirdly charming father/daughter story? I've been delighted to see Bakalova pick up some wins over the last few weeks. An Oscar win still seems a bit far-fetch. Rowdy, ribald R-rated comedies don't usually win Oscars. At the same time, a win for Bakalova doesn't seem inconceivable either and that makes me happy.
Official Prediction:
Probably Olivia Colman for "The Father" but I'm rooting for Maria Bakalova.
BEST DIRECTOR:
After Greta Gerwig's much publicized snub last year in the Best Director category, the Academy wants us to know that they like women filmmakers. Emerald Fennel - is that not the most British name you've heard in your life? - and Chloe Zhao both received nominations. In fact, Zhao - the first Asian woman to ever be nominated in this category - seems like the sure-shot winner. A further win for diversity was Lee Isaac Chung for "Minari."
In fact, the only quote-unquote "normal" Oscar pick in this category is David Fincher for "Mank." Fincher is a beloved figure and I'm sure he'll get his Best Director Oscar some day but he seems outclassed this year. Lastly, Thomas Vinterburg getting nominated for "Another Round" is kind of a surprise. The movie was well received and was an easy lock for Best International Film. Yet Vinterburg - who I still associate most with "It's All About Love" and the Dogme movement - is a pleasant surprise. But he won't win. This is Zhao's year.
Official Prediction:
Chloe Zhao for "NomadLand."
BEST WRITING:
I never fucking know who's going to win in these categories, to the point where I don't even know why I bother guessing. There's very few surprises in the Best Original Screenplay category, which is entirely made up of Best Picture nominees. Aaron Sorkin, nominated for "The Trial of the Chicago 7," is the most writerly writer in the group, suggesting he might win it. At the same time, a smaller category like this may be "Minari's" chance to walk away with an Oscar. (Assuming "Judas and the Black Messiah" or "Promising Young Woman" don't become juggernaut or something.)
The Adapted Screenplay category is much of the same, though "The White Tiger" - a movie I have genuinely never heard of before today - is a big surprise. "NomadLand's" Best Picture win seems fairly certain and that hype is likely to carry over to this category. At the same time, something like "The Father" or "Borat" down here. I really have no idea.
Official Prediction:
No fucking clue but my gut says "Trial of the Chicago 7" and "NomadLand."
BEST MUSIC:
I plead to the Academy: Please just give Diane Warren a fucking Oscar already. The Susan Lucci of songwriting received her twelfth nomination this year, for “Io Si” from “The Life Ahead.” (Only composer Thomas Newman – 15 – and sound design Greg P. Russell – 17 – have more nominations without winning.) The song is pretty, with vocals from Laura Pausini that don't overdo it too much and instrumentation just on the right side of overwrought. I would be fine if this won.
I haven't seen “EuroVision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga” yet but my understanding is that it's a farce... So I was pretty surprised that “Husavik (My Home Town)” seems to be a totally straight example of an Oscar bait ballad. I've got to give Molly Sanden points for hitting that high note at the end but otherwise this is aggressively not my kind of thing. I agree that “Jaja Ding Dong” is a better song.
R&B dominates the rest of the Original Song category. “Hear My Voice” from “The Trial of the Chicago 7” is a soulsy ballad with surprisingly upbeat melodies and singer Celeste is fine, I guess. “Fight for You” has funky music but I find the vocals and lyrics kind of repetitive and aimless. “Speak Now” from “One Night in Miami” does seem to build anywhere for the longest time and, when it finally hits that moment, it immediately goes for overwrought. Leslie Odom's voice is nice, I guess.
The only truly unexpected snub this year was a near total lockout for “Da 5 Bloods,” otherwise one of the best reviewed movies of last year. A single showing in the Best Score category is its sole nomination. Terence Blanchard's score is at its best when hitting the classical sweeping adventure themes and militaristic drums the most.
I can't tell how I feel about Emilie Mosseri's “Minari” score. Several of its sections sound really nice but the focus on meandering piano melodies and warbling vocal effects put me off slightly. James Newton Howards's score for “News of the World” is excellent and immediately captivating, with mourning western themes, driving emotion, and a strong role for acoustic guitar.
If you went back in time and told nineties industrial kids that Trent Reznor was going to be a multi-Oscar nominee for his music in the same year, I doubt they'd believe you. Moreover, they probably wouldn't recognize “Mank's” jazzy and 1940s style score as his. (Though it undeniably has that atmosphere of unease I associate with Reznor.) Probably even more mind-blowing to this hypothetical time traveler is that the guy who sang “I wanna fuck you like an animal” did the music for a Disney movie.. And that it's really fucking good. “Soul's” win for Best Score seems all but assured, considering its a movie about music and perfectly summons all the right emotions.
OTHER FILM CATEGORIES:
The motherfuckers did it again. Last year, "Honeyland" quietly broke history by being the first Best Documentary nominee to be also be nominated in the International Feature category. 2021 shows this may become a trend as "Collective" -- an upbeat Romanian picture about corruption in the public healthcare system -- pulled off the same feat this year. The film faces heavy competition in both categories. "Another Round" leads the International category while a number of buzzy titles, like "Crip Camp" and the much memed-on "My Octopus Teacher," seem to be dominating the Documentary.
I have to commend the Academy for choosing to ignore Dreamworks this year, in the Best Animated Feature category. I'm sure the new "Croods" movie is an inoffensive picture but I'm glad it was passed over, allowing for a more diverse selection. Granted, Pixar is still hogging two slots, with "Soul" definitely winning and "Onward" probably not deserving a nod at all. But I'm glad Oscar made room for the stunning "Wolfwalkers" - my fave in this category - and whatever the hell "Over the Moon" is.
MISC.:
Sick of spending so much time trying to explain the difference between Sound Editing and Sound Design, the Academy made the surprise decision to condense both categories into simply Best Sound. Considering the same sort of movies tend to dominate both categories, that was probably an overdue decision. I imagine a music-centric pic like "Soul" or "Sound of Metal" will win here.
The Best Editing and Make-Up categories continue to be overwhelmingly boring. Editing is made up entirely of Best Picture nominees. While I'm sure they are all well-edited, character dramas are not what I think of when I think of top-notch editing. As for Make-Up, it's all stuffy dramas and period pieces again. (This is where "Hillbilly Elegy's" second nomination resides.) Did you know they made a new version of "Pinocchio" last year? I didn't. Hollywood really needs to bring back monster movies so some bad-ass creature effects can start dominating this category again.
I guess being stuck inside all year really influenced the Academy in general, as character studies dominate most of the technical categories this year. "News of the World," that western with Tom Hanks, and "Tenet" are the only sweeping epics that got noticed in the Cinematographer and Production Design categories. The crop of Visual Effect nominees is also really weird this year. Aside from "Tenet" and "Mulan," it's a really oddball batch. Congrats to the "Love and Monsters" team and that post-apocalyptic movie George Clooney made that I totally forgot about. I guess movie studios sitting on most of their big budget releases until things get closer to normal was a contributing factor here.
I'll be starting my marathon of reviewing the nominees at the start of April, as I plan on squeezing two more Director Report Card this month. (Though one is related to the topic at hand.) After that, I'll be knee-deep in awards contenders.
What form the ceremony will take this year is a bit of a question mark. Will people be accepting their Oscars over Zoom calls or is the AMPAS pulling together a socially distance awards show? I guess we'll find out on April 25th. Naturally, I will be doing my annual live-blog of the show because I am a slave to tradition. Anyway, I'm hyped and I hope you are too!
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