OSCARS 2026 LIVE BLOG!

6:50 - Welcome again to Film Thoughts' annual live blog of the Oscars ceremony!

Much to my eternal shame, I have not seen all the nominees this year. I fell short by one, not having time to squeeze in The Lost Bus. Hopefully that doesn't take away from my enjoyment of the show tonight.

Having said that, this is still what I would vote for in each category, if I was an Academy member. 

6:55 - I wonder if Conan is going to make any awkward jokes about actually being in a nominated movie this year? Honestly, I hope he does more acting. 

7:02 - Hopefully this will be the only Aunt Gladys related gag tonight. 

7:03 - Okay, excellent dummy joke. And alright, Conan as a CGI cartoon character is pretty funny. 

7:05 - That bit went on a little too long but I enjoyed it. 

7:07 - See, one of the great things with Conan is, even when he tells a lame joke, he can turn it around with a silly delivery. 

7:08 - Me and the missus have been cracking jokes about how much our brain sees the word bologna whenever we see the word "Bugonia." 

7:10 - I would go see "CAPS LOCK"

7:12 - See, this is why Conan is a class act. There's not a joke about how nobody watches the Doc Shorts, the humor goes in a totally different direction. "Little Sad!" Except the donkey one. 

7:14 - What was with that split second shot of the camera shaking? Wow, the joke writers at the Oscars are still doing "TFW" jokes. 

7:17 - Fifteen minutes into his Oscars hosting gig, Conan O'Brien actually did get serious. 

7:19 - Okay, Conan's fake Oscar being delivered by a falcon was funny.

7:20 - It would seem like Amy Madigan is the favorite to win though Fanning would be a nice surprise. 

7:22 - Yay, for horror representation at the Oscars! She is accepting the award in front of the foyer of a Chinese restaurant. 

7:24 - "Thanks to all the dogs!" Awww, I like that. 

7:30 - I thought they were going to a comment section joke but this is okay too.

7:31 - Will Arnet has been hitting that bronzer. 

7:33 - Let me reiterate once again that I am a registered "KPOp Demon Hunters" hater. But the odds of "Little Amelie" pulling off an upset wasn't great. 

7:35 - The first unsuccessful play-off attempt of the night. I'm rooting for "Retirement Plan."

7:36 - I guess if we are going by the measurement of the Academy awarding the Most and not the Best than I guess "The Girl Who Cried Pearls" makes since in this category. Definitely had the most visually elaborate animation.

7:38 - I thought we were going to commercial but here's a musical number instead. 

7:40 - I like the swag the banjo lady here has. 

7:41 - Well, this was an honest attempt to re-create one of the best moments from a film last year and, uh, they tried. 

7:48 - Kylie Jenner's embarrassed smirk during the Bum Drum bit was amusing. Also, "Lawnmower Man" clip at the Oscars! Boy, they are still rolling with the Bum Drum thing, aren't they? 

7:51 - Anne Hathaway should do comedy more often. I was hoping "Frankenstein" would win Best Costumes just for that dress Mia Goth wore in the flashbacks. 

7:53 - Did her mic cut out for a second or did she say something really offensive? 

7:54 - I was rooting for "The Ugly Stepsister" but "Frankenstein" probably did have the best make-up, so I'm fine with this.

7:56 - Just wouldn't be an Oscar ceremony without as many awkward play-offs as possible! 

8:00 - So I've been saying Paul Mescal's name wrong the whole time. 

8:03 - The joys of live television, cutting to Delroy Lindo while someone else is still talking. 

8:06 - The P.T.A. Witness Protection was a good joke. "And I have one before you!" 

8:12 - Matt Berry shouting out Basil Rathbone, you love to see it. 

8:13 - There's definitely some Greek tragedy to Kamial Nanjami completely fucking up his face and body to get the superhero bod for a franchise that never panned out. 

8:15 - I want to reiterate how stunted I was that this year's Live Action shorts were mostly not depressing!

Okay, a tie in Live Action Shorts? That's never happened before. Hopefully, "The Singers" tied with "Friends of Dorothy" or "Jane Austen's Period Drama." 

8:17 - I wasn't crazy about "Two People Exchanging Saliva" but the filmmaker is actually in the Oscars Death Race Discord server I'm in and gave us a few shout-outs, so it's neat that they won. 

8:18 - Boy, the joys of live television are really showing up tonight. That abrupt cut to Conan on the side of the stage was an extraordinary moment. 

8:20 - Best Supporting Actor doesn't seem to have a clear cut front runner, so we'll see how this goes. I'm rooting for Delroy. 

8:22 - Sean Penn's biceps didn't want to be here. 

8:28 - Conan's white tux, that's a real humdinger. They are doing a few too many bits tonight though. 

8:32 - Robert Downey Jr. wore his Doctor Doom suit to the show tonight. 

It's actually insane that this is the first Oscar Paul Thomas Anderson has won. 

8:38 - Damn, the bits have mostly been very bad tonight. All the pithy banter in the world could not sell this one. Hopefully this will not be Ryan Coogler's only time on-stage tonight. 

8:44 - Mel Brooks burying both Carl and Rob Reiner just wasn't right.

8:46 - Probably for the best that they cut off Billy Crystal reading off Reiner's films at "The American President." 

8:48 - Someone standing up right in the way of the camera as the In Memorium montage starts. The technical gaffs tonight have been frequent. 

8:49 - I'm glad Udo Kier didn't get left out of the montage. 

8:54 - Also glad they didn't leave out Cary-Hirouki Tagawa, my boy Shang-Tsung.

8:55 - Boy, whoever is responsible for the microphones and sound tonight should probably not get brought back to this job next year. 

8:59 - Did they just cut to commercial in the middle of Babs finishing a sentence? Tonight's show feels like it's dragging on. 

9:02 - Wow, I'm impressed it took them this long to slip a zoomer/6-7 joke in there.

9:04 - ABC/Disney getting that cross-brand synergy in there with a Grogu. What is with the timing being so severely off tonight? 

 

9:06 - Shout-out to "The Lost Bus," the movie that fucked up my Oscar Death Race this year. Curse you, Paul Greengrass!

9:10 - "Do the hand thing, baby! 

9:14 - Oh no, I dozed off for a minute, woke up, and Jimmy Kimmel was hosting the show. I must be in a nightmare. 

9:16 - Man, I was really rooting for "The Devil is Busy." "All the Empty Rooms" does seem to be a little like the Academy's speed.

9:19 - Aside from it just being my favorite of the noms, it would be neat if Tig Nitaro won an Oscar. And again, inexplicably, the anti-Putin doc wins. I hate the guy too but the Academy really fuckin' hates that guy. Kimmel cracking jokes about the Melania doc, when it would not be eligible for the show this year, Jimmy! Sloppy. 

9:28 - I still have never seen "Bridemaids." What the hell is up with the sound tonight?

9:30 - "This bit has been going on a little too long." That describes all the bits tonight.

9:32 - "Sinners" obviously had the best score but "Bugonia" would be an acceptable alternative for me.

Also acceptable for them to just give it to the best score.

9:34 - Jesus Christ, what are these bits?????

9:36 - Not exactly passionate about it but "F1" was my pick for Best Sound, so that's nice. 

9:38 - I thought they were going to say "Welcome the President of the United States of America" and uhhhhh that would be awkward. 

9:43 - Woo doggy, this might not be the most boring Oscars broadcast I've ever seen but it's definitely not one of the better ones. 

9:46 - Is everybody being held at gunpoint while they read off these bits? Jesus. Also, not to be rude but Bill Pullman is looking weeeeeird. 

9:49 - Matt Berry pronounces "Demi Moore" exactly the way I would expect him too. And Miss More is wearing a giant feather duster tonight.

It's got no chance at winning but I'm rooting for "Train Dreams." '

9:50 - "Sinners" had great cinematography though, so I can't complain about that. 

9:55 - Ya know, man, I just don't get it. What about "Golden" makes it better than every other K-pop song out there? Just not my genre, I guess. 

9:57 - "Scan the QR code on your screen" ORRRRR you just put all the performances in the broadcast, you fuckin' hacks. 

10:03 - Javier, I knew you were based. 

10:04 - I figured "Sentimental Value" would win International Picture. Out of a lot that I wasn't crazy about, I suppose "The Voice of Hind Rajab" was my top pick. 

10:08 - Oh Lionel Richie, I didn't think you ever went away!

10:09 - There is a part of me that thinks it would be hilarious if Diane Warren actually does win this time. 

10:10 - The fans of this movie are about to get even more annoying now. 

10:12 - "I would like to thank.." BLARRPBRRRAPPP!!!! That made me laugh harder than any of the actual jokes tonight. 

10:15 - Doesn't matter how many years go by, anytime I hear someone say "Zendaya," my brain mentally fills it in to "...is Meechee."

Anyway, Coogler gang, rise up. 

10:17 - I love Paul Thomas Anderson but he should've won this award long before this for much more worthy films. When was the last time he had a coke night with Tarantino, I wonder?

10:20 - Ethan Hawke does deserve the Best Comb-Over Award. Will Timmy Shallot get or MBJ? Let's see. 

Michael B. was my pick from the get-go so I'm glad he turned out victorious. 

10:23 - Delroy Lindo definitely has the best ascot tonight. 

10:26 - Adrien Brody doing a Turbo Tax commercial is a good reminder that, in-between his two Oscar wins, he was starring in shit like "Giallo" and "InAPPropriate Humor." 

10:28 - Even Conan is like, "Jesus, can we please get this over with?" 

10:29 - Buckley feels like the only person in this category with real heat. Nice peroformance. Byrne would be a nice surprise. 

10:31 - I like Buckley's accent. "the arRRRRt."

10:33 - One more category, let's get this oveeeeeer with. 

10:34 - I kind of like how friggin' tall Nicole Kidman looks. 

10:36 - Well, there you, nobody how close it begins, the Academy will not nominated a horror film unless they can trick everyone into thinking it's a "psychological thriller."

10:38 - The cat, the most important thing in the room.

10:39 - I really loved Conan's hosting gig last year but this ceremony suuuucked. Too awkward to be serviceable, too boring to be memorable and entertaining. Few inspiring wins. Is that it? Are we done? Hot damn. Let's go to bed. Love you guys! 

Oh wait, there's more. 

10:40 - Ooooh this is an unfunny "One Battle After Another" bit! 

Good night, everybody!

OSCARS 2026: Nominations and Predictions

 

What was supposed to be the opening paragraph for my annual run-down of the Oscar nominations instead turned into its own lengthy rant. So I won't waste any more time. Here are my sure-to-be wildly inaccurate predictions and reflections upon 2026's slate of Academy Award nominated motion pictures. 

 

BEST PICTURE: 

People who treat cinema too like sports betting have debated whether Ryan Coogler's "Sinners" made enough money to justify what Warner Bros. spent on it. Which is a silly question, as the movie clearly resonated with audiences and was one of the year's best reviewed titles. Now, it has received 16 Oscar nominations, more than any other film this year and more than any other film ever before. 

Predictably, this has led to a backlash, folks who previously loved the movie saying a bloody vampire yarn doesn't deserve Best Picture. Or that it only got so many nominations out of white liberal guilt causing the pasty Academy voters to overrate the movie. That this isn't the right kind of black cinema that should be recognized. There might be some truth to the former point and I'm certainly not going to weigh in on the latter. I'll simply say that "Sinners" was also my favorite film of 2025 and I don't think that's because I'm trying too hard to prove how not-racist I am. I think it's because "Sinners" rocks. 

I'm sure people will continue to argue this point up until Oscar night. If "Sinners" doesn't win Best Picture, I expect the talking point to immediately shift back to #OscarsSoWhite territory. Every prognosticator right now says Paul Thomas Anderson's "One Battle After Another" is the film most likely to spoil the vampire flick's success. It's a fine film, still pulpier than your usual Oscar Bait, and very relevant to the troubled times we are living in. When you combine that with the likelihood of Academy voters turning their noses up at a vampire movie or the sense that PTA is overdue for some Oscar gold, the odds of "One Battle After Another" scooping up the top prize increases. 

That two quirky – by the standard of Best Picture nominees – movies such as these are facing off points towards 2026 being a somewhat unusual slate. Is there any "normal" Oscar Bait this year? "F1," probably. "Marty Supreme" and "Hamnet," being character centric dramas about a difficult sports champ and the personal life of the Bard, would normally classify. However, even those movies are grittier in focus or more indie in their aesthetic than we typically expect from For Your Consideration campaigns. It certainly says something about this line-up that a new "Frankenstein" movie is the closest thing to the usual prestige costume drama, sweeping epic about the courage of the human spirit that is on the plate this year. 

For further evidence of this, look at the flicks rounding up the category. "Train Dreams" is a whispery drama, admittedly one based on a beloved novel. "The Secret Agent" is a Brazilian film. "Bugonia" is surely among the most aggressively off-beat movies ever nominated in this category. "Sentimental Value," a well observed drama partially set in the film industry, would likely be the expected winner in a different year and even it is a smaller production made outside the Hollywood system. 

I can't say if this is a sign of changing taste or anything. Every step forward the Academy makes is usually followed by them giving "Green Book" or "CODA" Best Picture. But it does seem to be indicative of something to me, of either a younger crowd making up more of the AMPAS voting body, a indicator of a studio system utterly afraid of creative risks, or simply a reflection of the chaotic times we are all living in. So who will win? 

OFFICIAL PREDICTION:
"Sinners"

BEST ACTOR:

"One Battle After Another" and "Sinners" are going head-to-head in most of the top categories this year. Amusingly, Best Actor does not seem to be one where either film is likely to succeed. I think Michael B. Jordan would be my personal pick, if only because he is actually giving two excellent performances. Leo DiCaprio in "OBAA" seems currently to have the buzzier buzz of the performances.

And if Leo hasn't already climbed inside a dead horse, I think he would be a lock. Instead, another award being given out to honor a star's legacy more so than one performance has a lock on Best Actor. I don't mean Ethan Hawke in "Blue Moon," a movie that seems to have gotten little attention outside of Hawke's performance. 

Nah, this moment belongs to Timmy. Yanno, I still don't know if Chalamet is an actor I find enormously compelling. He's pretty good and I've liked him in a couple of things. I have no opinion on the conversation over whether he misled us all by merely cosplaying as a sensitive soft boy, when he's actually a crass, Kylie dating dude-bro. (Other than finding it kind of funny.) However, it seems clear to me that Chalamet has been shaping a narrative around himself as the Next Great Leading Man by keenly picking a smart mix of indie fair and hipper big budget vehicles. Last year's Bob Dylan movie was his big swing for an Oscar and he was on the campaign trail boldly declaring himself the Greatest of All Time. This was a tactic that clearly positioned him as this year's Best Actor winner via pure inertia, whether "Marty Supreme" ended up being any good or not. And Academy voters tend to find narratives like that hard to resist. Sorry, Wagner Moura. Better luck next time.

OFFICIAL PREDICTION:
Timothee Chalamet for "Marty Supreme."

BEST ACTRESS: 

If you had asked me a few months back what the safest bet for Best Picture would be, I would've gone with "Hamnet." A story of Shakespeare's wife grieving the loss of her child and how it influences her husband's creative process seemed like a good mixture of currently trendy elements and evergreen respectable topics. However, the rivalry between "Sinners" and "One Battle" has pushed "Hamnet" into third place or lower in most of the big categories... Except for Best Actress. Jessie Buckley's emotional tidal wave of a performance has been earmarked as an Oscar winner since the movie first showed up on the festival circuit. 

The only name that seems likely a possible spoiler for Buckley's success is Ross Byrne in "If I Had Legs, I'd Kick You." Among the Film Twitter, this is definitely the coolest of this year's noms and Byrne is the fan favorite to win. However, the Academy didn't seem to like the movie as much. If the tide of buzz and hype doesn't shift in the next month, I think Byrne is destined to be the runner-up. 

Emma Stone getting nominated for "Bugonia" is further proof the voters liked that one more than I expected. It also feels like residual good will from "Poor Thing's" success last year. Renate Reinsve is the newcomer, an unknown plucked out of obscurity for "Sentimental Value" and suddenly among the industry's biggest names. It's a nice story but I don't think she'll win. 

2026 has been surprisingly devoid of "villain" movies, widely disliked or panned motion pictures that inexplicably charmed Academy members. "Wicked: For Good" and "Jay Kelly" were both locked out. "The Smashing Machine" got pushed into a single nomination in Makeup and Hairstyling. Nobody seems that enthusiastic about "F1" but nobody seems to hate it either. That leaves one movie long proclaimed utterly mid somehow sneaking in a major nomination: Kate Hudson for "Sing Sung Blues," the biopic about Neil Diamond impersonators. I've already seen one person bemoaning that Hudson stole the spot that rightfully belonged to "Sorry, Baby's" Eva Victor and I'm sure there are plenty of other choices that would've rounded out this category. But the Academy's unpredictable tendency to sneak some random bullshit in is part of what makes them fun, at least for me anyway. (At least until I have to watch the bad movies.)

OFFICIAL PREDICTION:
Jessie Buckley for "Hamnet."

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

One of the things about "Sinners" that so delighted and surprised me was Delroy Lindo's incredibly textured, lived-in, funny performance. It's the type of acting that makes you go "Wow, this guy is great." Despite that, nobody expected Lindo to get an Oscar nomination because he's mostly been left out of award season. Maybe the Academy realized they fucked up when they passed Lindo over for "Da 5 Bloods" a while back. Either way, I'm really happy they selected him. 

Maybe Lindo sneaked in because Best Supporting Actor doesn't have a sure-fire winner this year. The attempt to campaign Paul Mascel in "Hamnet" for this category, despite him clearly being the lead, seemed to have backfired. That didn't only leave room for Lindo but also for "One Battle After Another" to take up two slots. Personally, between Benicio del Toro and Sean Penn, I probably would've nominated the latter. 

Who does that leave to win? Even the people who didn't like Guillermo del Toro's "Frankenstein" that much seemed to praise Jacob Elordi's take on the creature. I liked him too and, obviously, I think it would be awesome if somebody won an Oscar for playing Frankenstein's monster. However, Elordi is still young. He hasn't taken his lumps as a character actor or Hollywood star. Stellan Skarsgård, meanwhile, has been giving memorable turns in smaller productions, worked with a murderer's row of beloved auteurs, sired some famous sons, and lent his particular gravitas to big budget flicks for years now. Somehow, he's never been nominated for an Oscar in all that time. "Sentimental Value" has changed that and I expect that the common idea will be that the 74 year old industry veteran has earned a win too. 

OFFICIAL PREDICTION:
Stellan Skarsgård for "Sentimental Value."

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: 

The Academy, in fact, really liked "Sentimental Value." Elle Fanning's supporting turn in that one has been widely praised and a Best Supporting Actress nomination for her was expected. (Kind of surprising that this is the first nomination for anyone in the Fanning Dynasty.) However, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas' nomination for the same film was a bit of a surprise. The Swedish actress was pretty much entirely unknown over here before this film so it was nice that she got noticed.

Elle still has a decent shot at winning but I think a few other names are outshining her at the moment. Wunmi Mosaku has picked up a laundry list of nominations from various critics award shows and ceremonies but not too many wins. This is a bummer, since she's the heart and soul of “Sinners,” in my opinion. There's a part of me that wonders if she'll pull off a surprise win with the Academy.

But probably not. How about another horror movie that managed to move pass the Academy's stigma against the macabre stuff to earn a nomination? My sarcastic prediction that “Weapons” would follow in “Get Out's” footsteps and win a Best Original Screenplay Oscar did not come to pass. However, Creggor's clever tale of witchcraft in a small town did sneak into Best Supporting Actress. This makes sense, as Amy Madigan's turn as Aunt Gladys was one of the few times last year when someone pointed at a character in a movie and shouted, “Oh, this is the one people are going to remember in twenty years.” Essaying such an immediately striking character certainly should be enough to give Madigan the win and there's still a slight chance of that. I still am getting the general impression that, while “Weapons” might be the kind of movie to be nominated for an Oscar, it is not the kind of movie that wins an Oscar.

Alright, so who is the probable winner in this category? Teyana Taylor in “One Battle After Another” has less screen time than any of the other principal characters in the film. However, the impression she makes on the audience is such that her shadow floats over the entire story. That's some real star power, when someone is felt even long after they have exited the story. I suspect this will lead Taylor to a win.

OFFICIAL PREDICTION:
Tetayna Taylor for “One Battle After Another.”

 

BEST DIRECTOR:

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences are notoriously bad at recognizing generational talent in their generation. Hindsight is 20/20, of course, which is maybe why great artist are inevitably passed over for their best movies and instead get an Oscar as essentially a Lifetime Achievement Award. Call this the “Scent of a Woman” Award. Not that I am implying that “One Battle After Another” is Paul Thomas Anderson hoo-ha-ing it up. I liked the movie, plenty. However, it definitely says something that the Academy forgot to give this beloved, critically adored auteur an Oscar for “There Will Be Blood” or “Magnolia.” That enough time has passed for someone to realize that they fucked up. That a Best Director Oscar is considerably overdue for this gentleman. 

So P.T. is a lock for Best Director, right? People much more clued into these sort of things than me seem to think so. However, there's this gnawing sense in me that Ryan Coogler probably should win. I have no doubt that the heated race between these two will continue up until the night of the ceremony. I would love it if Anderson finally got his Best Director statue. However, I cannot overlook the sense that Coogler is the one that really earned it this year. 

What about the rest of the slate? Chloe Zhao won a couple years back and I don't think “Hamnet” speaks to the moment quite as specifically as “Nomadland” did. Everybody I follow on Twitter loves the Safdie brothers' previous movies. I suspect that the Academy is a bit late catching up with that reputation with these two as well. The brothers are no longer directing together but Josh did grabbed a nom for “Marty Supreme.” This leaves Joachim Trier to round out the slate. The warm reception that greeted “The Worst Person in the World” a few years back was clearly a precursor to the Academy embracing “Sentimental Value.” Trier is also, quite clearly, standing in fifth place.

OFFICIAL PREDICTION:
Ryan Coogler for “Sinners.'

 

BEST WRITING:

I feel like I'm repeating myself here but 2026 truly is looking to be the battle between “Sinners” and “One Battle After Another.” Notably, both films are nominated on opposing sides of the Best Screenplay categories. It seems almost inevitable that the Academy will split the difference, handing “Sinners” Original Screenplay and “Battle” Adapted Screenplay. This showdown is dominating things to the degree that the rest of the Screenplay line-up feels almost uninspired. The voters basically split the two categories between most of the Best Picture nominees. “Marty,” “Hamnet,” “Frankenstein,” “Bugnoia,” “Train Dreams,” and “Sentimental Value” all got their expected nods.

This makes the outliers almost more worthy of discussion. Aside from Ethan Hawke's notice in Best Actor, “Blue Moon” picked up an Original Screenplay notice. One of the more prominent snubs of this season has been “It Was Just an Accident” – among 2025's best reviewed motion picture – being left out of the Best Picture race. It scored a token nomination within the International Film category but, outside of that, Original Screenplay is the only place it managed to reappear. I didn't quite understand that movie, like at all, but I fully expect others to use this exclusion as further evidence of the Academy being out of touch or whatnot. 

OFFICIAL PREDICTION:
“Sinners” and “One Battle After Another.”

BEST MUSIC:

“It Was Just An Accident” is a million miles away, in terms of content and intended viewers, from another much discussed 2025 release. Critics adored the former while a mass audience went absolutely crazy for “KPop Demon Hunters.” However, the two films are united by me not really understanding either of them. I especially did not understand why so many have found the songs in “KPop Demon Hunters” so infectious. They all sounded equally overproduced to me! “Golden” is built on overpowering bass thumps and walls of processed pop sound. This overcomes breathy and soaring vocals that scan to me as more mumbled than distinct and generic lyrics about believing in yourself and realizing your own potential, when you can actually hear or understand what is being sung at all. It's kind of catchy, the same way the flu is, because it's been expertly engineered and designed to hit all the right rises and falls that burrow into your ear. Pop music like this is, to use a Twitter meme, all hype moments and aura and zero substance to my ears. However, “Golden” is a massive crossover hit, the likes of which we haven't seen since at least “We Don't Talk About Bruno.” The Academy fucked up real bad with that one but I don't expect that to be the case here. “Golden” will win Best Original Song because it must. The forces of cultural inertia are simply too powerful to resist. 

That “Golden” is definitely going to win is dispiriting for another reason. Last year, Diane Warren received an honorary Oscar. I had hoped this would bring an end to the running gag of nominating her in the Best Original Song category – for whatever random-ass movie she made a song for that year – but never giving her an actual win. Instead, someone made a whole documentary about Warren. Of course, she wrote a new song for it and, of course, it had to be nominated. “Dear Me,” like so many of Warren's composition, is fine. There's a pretty piano melody in there, under the crushing pop mixing. Kesha's vocals are alright, the lyrics of self-realization and empathy are okay. Not a snowball's chance in hell of winning. Better next year, Diane?

Speaking of random-ass movies! It simply would not be a proper Oscar nomination line-up if some movie not a single soul had heard of before didn't sneak in somewhere. This year's mystery pick was “Viva Verdi!,' a documentary about opera singers that had about forty views on Letterboxd before the nominations were announced. “Sweet Dreams of Joy” is the song. Opera is not typically my genre but this is pretty. Simple but immediately striking piano keys are combined with the kind of singing that impressively dances up and down the musical scale, before the expected inspiring strings join in. Hey, that's nice.

The respected rock poet contributing to the Best Song slate this year is Nick Cave, who performs the title song for “Train Dreams.” Cave's grumbling singing and elaborately twisting words – this is a song about seeing weird shit on the frontier – have almost reached the level of self-parody by now. But I like this kind of bullshit so I can get plenty out of the song. Bryce Dessner's backing music builds on this nicely. 

“I Lied to You” from “Sinners” contributed to probably the coolest moment in what is one of last year's coolest movies. I'm too much of a white boy to have much insight into the nuances of the blues but the guitar picking, soulful singing, and jangly piano keys sound cool as hell to me. That's before “I Lied to You” manages to synthasize about a dozen different styles of soul music from across the last fifty years, turning the song into a concussive history lesson on the evolution of blues' influence. As among 2025's most striking musical moments, it should win Best Original Song but I don't think HUNTRX can be defeated. 

I expect “Sinners'” loss in Best Song will be vindicated by Ludwig Göransson's soundtrack winning Best Original Score. The mixture of traditional blues and folk music with harder rock guitar, bursts of action movie energy, and spiritual choirs is clearly the stand-out among the nominees in this category. Jonny Greenwood's “One Battle After Another” score is a nice blend of sparser sounds, lusher orchestration, and some quirkier intrigue here and there that add a lot of texture. 

Alexandre Desplat's score for “Frankenstein” certainly sounds like what you would expect from a grand, costume drama adaptation of a classic work of horror literature and it's good at it. But I wish it embraced those bolder, more gothic sounds more often. Max Richter's “Hamnet” score is built on waves of emotional strings that swell and swell and suits a film about interior lives and heavy emotions. It's a bit too minimalist to be listen to on its own though. I like Jerskin Fendrix's “Bugonia” score when it builds to grander themes or delves into some electronic weirdness, not so much when it focuses on brooding dissonance or slowly simmering moods of anxiety. 

 

OTHER FILM CATEGORIES:

I do like that the Academy has not stuck International Features entirely to their own category these days. On one hand, it is definitely nice that Academy voters are no longer satisfied to seclude a film to the International Features category simply because it is in another language. Obviously, "Sentimental Value" – the probable winner – and "The Secret Agent" both managed to break out in big ways while "It Was Just An Accident" and "Sirat" at least secured one other nomination. However, the tendency to simply elect the same dozen films in as many categories as possible has ended up limiting International Features a little. If this award is designed to bring attention to other films made outside of the U.S., it has backfired a little if three or four slots are taken up by movies people obviously already know about. "The Voice of Hind Rajab," from Tunisia, is the sole nominee in this category that didn't branch out into any other area. Considering the International Feature line-up is still limited to whatever the other countries around the world submit, this means fewer international movies are going to get the Academy spotlight. 

Animation, on the other hand, is still largely corralled into its own ghetto. Disney and Pixar ate up two slots in Best Animated Feature with "Zootopia 2" and "Elio." While the former is currently the highest grossing animated movie in history, I again expect the pop culture phenomenon of "KPop Demon Hunters" to win. It is nice that two smaller films, "Little Amelie" and "Arco," managed to sneak in. Even if AMPAS members refuse to recognize animation across the board.

I've fallen into a bad habit of not knowing most of the nominees for Best Documentary Feature. That's because streamers like Netflix and Paramount+ have made themselves the home for a lot of buzzy docs. On one hand, that's good because it gives films that probably wouldn't have a wider audience more viewership. On the other hand, you're still not likely to see these docs advertised on the front page of the application. Meaning you won't know they are there unless you already have Heard of them. The only documentaries I see on the top page of my streaming apps are trashy, true crime shit. Excuse me if I tend to filter out streaming exclusives as worthy of less attention. Anyway, the only docs I've heard any buzz about is "The Perfect Neighbor." Does that mean it will win? I don't know.

 

MISCELLANEOUS:

One of my favorite movies from last year was "The Ugly Stepsister," an extremely gruesome and beautifully made Norwegian film that put a body horror spin on the old "Cinderella" story. It was announced a while back that the movie was on the Academy shortlist for Best Costumes and Make-Up and Hairstyling, which surprised me. Shudder exclusives do not typically catch the Academy's eyes. Well, the film was passed over for Costumes. Voters had to make room for "Avatar: Fire and Ash" there, raising questions about whether computer generated costumes count. However, "The Ugly Stepsister" did receive a nod in Best Makeup. It's not as funny as some grisly gore-fest getting that Oscar gold but this one is still pretty gross, so I'm satisfied. Makeup was actually kind of an unpredictable lineup this year. "Frankenstein" – probably gonna win – and "Sinners" were safe assumptions but this is the first I've heard of Japanese Kabuki drama "Kokuho." The Rock's stab at being taken seriously as an actor, "The Smashing Machine," failed to get noticed in any other category but this one. Hopefully Dwayne's mountains of money will comfort him. 

This year also saw the inclusion of the first new category in something like fifty years. It wasn't the much teased Best Stunts category, which still hasn't quite made the cut. Instead, we know have Best Casting to consider. Does this mean hardworking casting directors for otherwise overlooked motion pictures got nominated? Lol no, the Academy just nominated the same five movies here as they did everywhere else. That's starting to become a real problem around these parts. "Frankenstein" is actually the front runner in several technical categories, like Costumes and Production Design. Makes this old monster kid feel proud. (The movie also earned a Cinematography nod, despite how many people I saw online saying the film looked too dark or flat. Who is more full of shit, Film Twitter agitators or Academy members?) "Avatar," of course, is expected to win Visual Effects. However, that category did contain a few surprises. Remember when Paul Greengrass was still a big deal? He made some disaster movie called "The Lost Bus" this year that completely slipped pass my radar but the Visual Effects arm of the Academy must have been impressed by it. Another surprise was "Jurassic World Rebirth" getting a nomination here. This is somehow the first time any entry into the much loathed "Jurassic World" sub-series has gotten an Oscar nomination. I mean, say what you will about those movies but the digital effects in them are always fantastic. I would say "Rebirth's" effects team genuinely does deserve the notice here. But maybe I'm dinosaur bias.

 

 

Realizing that having a host that actually likes movies and enjoys doing bits about them worked out nicely, the Academy has decided to invite Conan O'Brien back to host this year. He was delightful so I'm looking forward to that. I'm also looking forward to a whole month of movie watching now. 

OSCARS 2025 LIVE BLOG!

6:53 - Hello and welcome back to Film Thoughts' annual live-blog of the Oscars ceremony! I'm a little late starting this because I had to choke down some pizza. This is the climax of a full month and a half of me watching and reviewing my way through all the nominees, so it's been quite a journey, I guess. I don't know how many years I've been doing this and I'm sure two people are reading these words right now. Nevertheless, I love giving a minute-by-minute reaction to the glitziest night in Hollywood. Conan O'Brien is a good pick for host, I hope he delivers!

Here's who I would vote for in every category, if the Academy ever gets with it and make me a member.

7:02 - And off we go with the first of what will surely be many heart-touching montages.

7:03 - I'm going to come out being an asshole first thing this year by admitting that I don't especially like Ariana Grande's style of singing! She is overdoing it so badly right now. 

7:05 - Enrivo's nails are certainly making a statement.

7:06 - How much of the ceremony tonight is going to bank on a pre-established fondness for "Wicked?" Cause if it's a lot then.. Gonna be a rough night.

7:08 - By the way, it is sort of fun going into the Oscars genuinely having no idea what will win best picture. Let's see the Academy completely blindside everyone and hand it to "Nickel Boys," just for funzies. 

7:09 - Alright, the cut to "The Substance" made me laugh. This is a pretty good bit! Are we to expect more bizarre skits like this? Hope so.

7:12 - I like the way Conan pronounces "Nosferatu." 

7:13 - Lots of jokes incoming tonight about "The Brutalist's" runtime? 

7:15 - Is, uh, Karla in attendance tonight? Can't blame them for going with the easy punchline with her. I do think I've laughed more during this opening monologue than I have in the last few ceremonies. 

7:17 - Gotta give Timothee some credit: He pulls off the yellow tux. 

7:18 - I love the sparse, uncomfortable chuckles after he made mentioned about how a man unable to give his wife an orgasm. Don't even get me started on Amazon buying the Bond rights...

7:20 - The withering stare of John Lithgow is very effective. 

7:21 - Damn, Guy Pearce had a rockin' mullet. 

7:22 - Adam Sandler's fluffy sweatshirt rubbed up against his mic there. He's having fun, I respect that.

7:25 - Conan getting serious 25 minutes into his set. But I appreciate what he's saying here. See, that really is what the Oscars are all about. Celebrating the little guys! That's why you don't cut the Shorts categories from the boardcast! 

7:26 - This bit isn't very good. The audience is hating it, lol. But I do have to admire the audacity and stupidity of this. Especially the piano playing sand worm! 

7:28 - RDJ stopping by at the Oscars on his way to collecting another ten million from Marvel. 

7:29 - In a year that didn't have stand-out performances like Culkin or Strong or Pearce, I would agree with the estimation that Edward Norton should just get an Oscar at this point. But "A Complete Unknown" is such an nothing movie and it's such a bland performance. Come on, Kiernan, get that gold!

7:31 - Been a fan of this guy since "Igby Goes Down," so it's nice to see him winning. The sound just cut out on the Hulu feed. How many siblings does he have? 

7:33 - Maybe acceptance speeches should have more rambling anecdotes like this. 

7:38 - Andrew Garfield's brown suit is bitchin'. 

7:40 - Awwww, aren't these two cute together? I'm really rootin' for "Flow."

7:41 - Hoo-ray! May we have more winners from Latvia in the future! 

7:43 - I'm rooting for "Magic Candies" but one of the lamer ones will probably get it. As long as it's not "Beautiful Men." 

Not surprised that the most Serious, definitely not the best, of the nominees won though.

7:46 - Seeing these two bicker over their cellphone was amusing. 

7:54 - Honestly, I'd probably vote for "Conclave," if it was me. But I'm still hoping for a Sweepferatu. But "Wicked" had the Most Costume Design, so it'll be deemed the Best Costume Design.

7:57 - Oops, passed the camera over to Bowen by accident for a minute. I'm really appreciating the general tone of the ceremony this year, of paying tribute to all the artisans in the industry. 

8:00 - "Conclave" Bros, it's not too late. We can still make this happen!

8:05 - I love Conan's commitment to stupid bits. I'm glad Nick Offerman's resounding voice has paid off for him. 

8:07 - The opposite of joy: Screenwriting! Now I'm curious who would win Best Hair...

8:09 - People on Twitter have been extremely normal about Sean Baker all week, so I'm sure they are overjoyed with it winning anything. 

8:12 - Desperately hoping we have a complete "Emilia Perez" lock-out tonight. Can "Nickel Boys" pull it off? 

8:13 - "Conclave," huh? Probably wouldn't have been my first choice but I'll take it. 

8:15 - Time for the yearly tradition of Janet Yang appearing on-screen.

8:20 - Hell yeah, let's keep Conan changing tuxes all throughout the night!

8:21 - June Squib supremacy! "The Substance" will get it and probably deserves it but "Sweepsferatu!" Alas.

8:24 - I like the little green flowers on this lady's jacket.

8:25 - "I had the pleasure of working with them on the worst Bond movie ever." This tribute was real weirdly timed, in light of the Amazon news. Also, I love the way Halle's dress keeps reflecting the light back at the camera. 

8:27 - Margaret Qualty's tooth-gap? I'm just sayin', it DOES things to a man. 

8:28 - Okay.. "Lisa." 

8:30 - Hey, Doja Cat can actually belt it out! Boy, this is going on for a while, isn't it? I don't know who this person is and I don't know why they invited her. Her hand motions are distracting me. 

8:37 - Conan has been killing it tonight. A building devoted to streaming movies! What a concept!

8:39 - "The world's sexiest Daryl." Jesus, twenty years since "Kill Bill Vol. 2?" I am crumbling into dust.

8:40 - Really gotta give Editing to "The Brutalist," right? 

Okay, "Anora" for Editing. Huh. That's a choice, I guess. How many more times is Sean Baker going to be up on stage tonight? 

8:43 - Seems like a little bit of a long shot but I'm hoping Isabella Rosalleni wins Best Supporting Actress. Come on, she wore blue velvet to the show tonight! 

8:45 - Category fraud! Saldana was clearly the lead of "Emilia Perez!" Also, that movie sucked! 

8:47 - Oh my god, this is a very intense acceptance speech! Maybe don't ladle it on so much, Zoe, jeez.

8:53 - "The Substance:" The first movie with an extended homage to "Re-Animator" to be nominated for Best Picture?

8:54 - We need to get Ben Stiller out there, doing bits again. He's been behind the camera too much. "Sweepsferatu!" Come on!

8:56 - Uggggh, "Wicked" is just going to bulldoze the technical categories, isn't it? Booooo!

8:58 - "Please welcome, Mick Jagger!" Okay, I don't know why he's here but why not? His eyes have gotten squintier over the decades. 

8:59 - I'm sure they'll give it to "Emilia Perez" but can we just give it to Diane Warren, so we don't have to think about her again next year?

9:01 - Best Original Song is a pretty weak category this year but "Like a Bird" is probably the actual best of the nominees. 

9:03 - Can we make sure that "Emilia Perez" wins for nothing else tonight? 

9:05 - Singing your acceptance speech is a nice touch, I'll admit. But fuck that movie! 

9:08 - Damn, Drake is so washed that he's getting dragged at the fucking Oscars! 

9:09 - I love the commitment they are showing to this stupid-ass Sandworm bit. "Samuel L. Jackson and Selena Gomez team up in what will hopefully be next summer's wackiest buddy comedy!"

9:10 - "Incident" probably won't win but I sincerely hope it does. 

9:11 - Lots of powerful filmmaking on display in the Best Documentary Short category this year and the Academy gave the Oscar to the thing that was on fuckin' Netflix. 

9:13 - Personally rooting for "Black Box Diaries" but it'll probably go to "No Other Land." 

Yep. I had read online that Gal Gadot was going to present this category but looks like someone changed their mind. I WONDER WHY????

9:16 - I can't help but be cynical about these things. I don't think giving a film about the topic of Gaza being destroyed and suppressed by Israel helps the people actually under that regime much. Good movie though. Donate money to Palestine instead. I no longer believe that simply watching a movie about a topic counts as activism. 

9:22 - The wild fires are still on-going, yes? Sort of crazy that the news cycle just moved on from that. Ralph Fiennes does not look like he wants to be here. 

9:24 - The show has been kind of middle-of-the-road tonight but Conan is such a natural pick for host. Most consistently funny ceremony in years!

9:26 - "Kilometers and Kilometery!" A writer wrote that joke. 

9:29 - I'm very blase on the "Dune" movies but, I'll admit, I probably would've voted for them in Best Sound too. They straight-up turned that last guy's mic off! Rude.

I've never heard a single person pronounce Gal Gadot's name the same way. 

9:30 - Come on, APES!

NO! Let the apes take the stage and steal the Oscar anyway! Chimp solidarity! APES TOGETHER STRONG. 

9:32 - The German starts talking and then they play da music to get him off da stage. "A legendary movie duo reunite!" I'm so glad that Clint and Clyde are getting back together after all these years...

9:37 - They got Sterling K. Brown to partner with Ana de Armas because Daniel Craig won't return their calls anymore. 

As always, Best Live Action Short is a super weak category. "The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent" is my pick. 

9:38 - "I Am Not a Robot" was solid. Surprised to see the Shorts branch award the one nominee that wasn't a heavy-handed issues movie!

9:39 - "But I love you." And they start to play them off. NO DUTCH AFFECTION AT THE OSCARS!

9:41 - Nothing but complete respect for Gene Hackman for living to 95 and still dying in a mysterious fashion. In all seriousness, an icon. Time to get sad. I'm glad Roger Corman made it into the broadcast montage. 

9:43 - Cheng Pei-Pie died??? 

9:44 - Lou Gossett Jr., one of my all-time favorite "That Guys!" Sad he won't be randomly popping up in stuff anymore. Shelley Duvall, you are missed! And the loss of David Lynch leaves a hole in my heart the size of a small town with a dark secret. 

9:50 - Did that non-controversy about A.I. really one-shot "The Brutalist's" chances in every category? Pretty bogus, says I. Let's give Lol some love at the very least! 

9:52 - "Maria's" cinematographer has THE DRIP. That fedora, the side burns, the turned-up collar? Dude looks like a Batman villain.

9:54 - COME ON, SWEEPSFERATU! GIVE ME SOMETHING!

Alright, also an acceptable choice. 

9:57 - Absolutely zero chance for "The Girl with the Needle" to win Best International Feature but it's a movie I like the more I think about it. Please, not "Emilia Perez!" 

9:59 - All I care about is that "Emilia Perez" did not win. "I'm Still Here," a totally cromulent motion picture. Kind of mean to play that guy off when he was being very sincere! 

10:05 - Absolutely brutal shade on the current administration there, Mr. O'Brien. 

10:06 - Oh hi, Mark Hamill. 

Once I saw the movie, "The Brutalist" score totally won me over. I hope it wins, not the least because it's competition is underwhelming. 

10:08 - Don't play this poor man off, he's about to burst into fire in the sun. 

10:12 - Damn, the show was almost running on time for once! Quick, throw in an unnecessary musical number to crush the pacing again!

10:19 - Awww don't be hard on yourself, Conan. I'm sure your mom thinks you are handsome. 

Sebastian Stan is my pick for Best Actor, who has no chance at winning at all. Timothee probably will get it because the Academy is so boring. 

10:22 - Is Adrien Brody going to go up on stage and French kiss Cillian Murphy? 

I love the anecdote about the make-up artist who tried to remove Brody's nose, assuming it was a prosthetic. How do you know who Adrien Brody is and not know that snoze? Anyway, I hope this means Neil Cicirega does a BrodyQuest sequel now.  

10:27 - Brody strong-arming the orchestra. That's star power, baby! 

10:29 - Awww, Conan getting sincere about Tarantino! I would to. 

10:36 - This deep into the show and Hulu's live stream goes cold! 

10:37 - Alright, my friends on Discord saving my ass. I'm sure Demi has got it in the bag but rooting for Mikey! 

10:38 - Heeeeey Mikey! Boy, all the other nominees doing or saying something stupid really worked in her favor! 

10:39 - She's absolutely delightful and I hope she becomes a huge star. 

10:41 - "The best Oscar host ever." Okaaaaay, suuure. 

10:43 - Watch them still give it to "Emilia Perez" just to infuriate me, personally. 

10:44 - Honestly, I'm quite pleasantly surprised that "Anora" ended up sweeping. "The Brutalist" or "Emilia Perez" seemed like the more obvious favorite. Back in January, I picked "Conclave" as the "safest" choice. I've already seen a ton of people debating the merits of "Anora" already so I don't think it's a safe choice at all. But I really liked it! Good for these guys. Can't wait for the months of debate and discourse over this film and Sean Baker now. 

10:30 - Third time Sean Baker has been upon that stage. I guess this seals the deal on "Anora" winning Best Picture. I would not have expected it a few months ago! 

10:51 - General thoughts on the show tonight: Conan was great! Could've done without the musical tributes! The winners were very weird! No bizarre stage antics or fuck-ups, which I guess is good! Hulu can suck my ass! That's another award season in the books. Good night, everybody!

OSCARS 2025: Nominations and Predictions

America is plunging towards a new era of dumbness and bigotry the likes of which haven't been seen in decades, while simultaneously being on fire and buried in snow. You can't help but feel a little apocalyptic in conditions such as these, meaning I'm in need of a good distraction. Oh yes, it's Oscar season again. Time to buckle down and spend the next six weeks or so stuffing my face with Hollywood's most prestigious offerings from the last year. 

By the time the nominations are actually announced – delayed twice this year on-account of the aforementioned apocalypse – we usually have a solid idea of what the line-up will look like. There weren't too many surprises this year, most of the expected names being called out. Mostly, I'm just happy that the horror genre is a little better represented than usual this year. Let's not get too far ahead of ourselves here. Time for me to throw around my yearly practice of wildly inaccurate predictions!

BEST PICTURE: 

When "The Substance" first started to gain some buzz on the festival circuit, it was the standard kind of appraisal that an cool new indie genre film gets. This was, after all, the next feature from the director of "Revenge," a Shudder release, that was packed with latex mutations, twisted flesh, and geysers of blood. You wouldn't expect Frank Henenlotter and "Body Melt" to be influences on an Oscar nominated film. However, we live in strange times and "The Substance" has become an award-season darling. It is nominated in four categories, including Best Picture. Perhaps we shouldn't be surprised, as there's nothing the Academy loves more than stories about their own industry. 

A few years back, Sean Baker's "The Florida Project" was a beloved indie that only managed to snag a single nomination from the Academy. I supposed taste has changed since then, what with indie distributors like A24 becoming Hollywood powerhouses. Baker's latest film, "Anora," scored six nods in high profile categories, despite being a hotly contested motion picture in the Film Twitter sphere. 

Not that Love It or Hate It situations are too uncommon with the Oscar nominees. In fact, this year's Villain Movie – the pick despised by movie snobs but inexplicably adored by award bodies – has the most nominations of the entire slate. That would be "Emelia Perez," Netflix's international musical about a transgender drug boss. It has been derided by actual queer people as diminishing at best and fully transphobic at worst. Moreover, a lot of people think the movie is simply bad, with at least one clip going viral for how tone-deaf it is. I guess the Academy didn't get the memo and gave it 13 nominations. 

It's far from the only divisive film in this year's Best Picture slate. In fact, most of the nominees are rather contested this year. The long awaited film adaptation of "Wicked" has been praised by some but dismissed by far many more as the exact kind of slop the tastemakers should be hissing at. Also because it looks like absolute ass. The Academy nominated it in ten categories. "The Brutalist," a three and a half hour long historical drama about architecture and the Holocaust, seems right up the Academy's alley but has recently come under fire for its apparent use of AI. It is still a favorite to win a few categories and seems to have a decent shot at Best Picture. 

The thoroughly uncontroversial Best Picture nominees are the most and least expected one. "Conclave," a stately drama with mystery elements about the Catholic church, seems like the most traditional pick for Best Picture. It's still the consensus pick to win but there's a surprising lack of heat behind it. (In so much as eight nominees can classify as heatless.) The Academy also liked "A Complete Unknown," the Bob Dylan biopic, a lot more than expected. I guess voters simply cannot quit the musician biography genre. "Dune: Part Two" is the expected example of the Academy throwing a bone to the public by nominating a grand epic that people actually saw in theaters, Frank Herbert's sand-strewn sci-fi epic having long since passed into the canon of respectable literature. 

That leaves "Nickel Boys," a well liked little drama that barely squeaked into the top ten and... "I'm Still Here?" The 2010 mockumentary about Joaquin Phoenix pursuing a rap career? No, no, this "I'm Still Here" is a Brazilian biopic about Eunice Paiva, a lawyer and activist who campaigned against the country's military dictatorship in the seventies. The film was expected to pick up a nom in Best International Picture but it breaching the subtitle barrier and warning a Best Picture nominee is a major surprise. 

OFFICIAL PREDICTION:

In the darkest timeline, "Emilia Perez" wins and, since we are clearly in that timeline, it'll probably happen. However, I'll hedge my bets and say "Conclave" is still the "safest" choice for Best Picture. "The Brutalist" is the dark horse pick. 

BEST ACTOR:

Late last year, there was a minor controversy that "The Appreciate," a highly critical motion picture about the failed casino owner currently residing in the highest political office in the land, was being intentionally ignored by award bodies. Since Trump's second win, there's been this sickening slide in the culture towards appeasing our flagrantly evil right-wing overlords. Either that stink caught the voters' attention or was too minor for the Academy to notice. Sebastian Stan, whose game as a dramatic actor is starting to outweigh his fame as a member of the Marvel Universe, did indeed score a nomination for playing future president Trump in "The Apprentice." What this says about anything, the film industry or politics or the frightening vibe shift we're undergoing, I surely cannot tell you. 

I can't imagine a film about such a hotly debated figure earning its star an Oscar though. The rest of the category is made up of easier choices. "Sing Sing" is an indie fave that missed out on a Best Picture nod but Colman Domingo did grab a Best Actor nomination, cementing his status as one of our great actors in the current era. Ralph Fiennes is an old favorite, a beloved character actor earning his third nomination for "Conclave." Timothee Chalamet playing Bob Dylan is such an easy lay-up for an Oscar nomination, that it's hard to imagine him not winning. However, current odds seem to favor Adrien Brody in "The Brutalist." I sort of hope Brody wins just so we can be treated to a repeat of what happened last time he won an Oscar: Kissing the presenter so hard that he's forced to do schlock for a decade before slowly winning his respectability back. Maybe Emma Stone should wear a face shield...

OFFICIAL PREDICTION:

If "The Brutalist" becomes the unstoppable juggernaut most everyone thinks it will, Adrien Brody will win. If its heat slips any in the next month, Timothee Chalamet gets it. 

BEST ACTRESS: 

If Chalamet as Dylan was a sure shot in the Best Actor category, then the similar "well duh" pick in Best Actress is probably Cynthia Ervio in "Wicked." Erivo has the kind of talent that demands attention and she's certainly made no secret that she believes this too. Plus it's a star turn in a beloved musical. Normally, she'd be a slam dunk.

Not this year though and you can probably blame that in the critical divide over "Wicked" in general. Instead, Best Actress is an eclectic blend this year. Fernanda Torres is critically beloved but far from a household name, making her nomination for "I'm Still Here" a bit of a surprise. Mikey Madison as "Anora" was seen as a long shot a few months back but the film has become an undeniable critical darling. The Academy Awards are all about Hollywood patting itself on the back and breaking ground by making Karla Sofía Gascón the first transwoman to win an Oscar would seem to be a hard option to pass up, despite it being for a movie that most trans people seem to dislike. 

However, there's little the Academy loves more than a come back kid. Demi Moore was a divisive figure during her brief superstar reign in the nineties, having long since fallen off the A-list... "The Substance" has changed all that though. It's also the kind of high-impact melodrama that seems to appeal to Academy voters. It's easy to imagine everyone in the Best Actress voting pool having a lot of appreciation for Moore's turn as an aging actress who goes to desperate measures to regain her fame. Moore is quickly becoming a lock in this category. 

OFFICIAL PREDICTION:

Demi Moore in "The Substance."

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

I remember seeing "Igby Goes Down" as a teenager and thinking that this Kiernan Culkin kid was going to be a big star some day. That's hardly been the case, Culkin instead carving out a nice niche for himself as a character actor. However, for his part in Jesse Eisenberg's directorial debut, "A Real Pain," he seems to have a very good shot at winning an Oscar.

Culkin is such a fave that most odds put him far above the competition. Guy Pearce is somehow earning his first Oscar nomination for "The Brutalist" and it sure would be neat if he finally got some Academy recognition for a lifetime of swell work. Yura Borisov and Jeremy Strong, in "Anora" and "The Appreciate," seemed likely choices to be nominated but not to win. Meanwhile, Edward Norton as Pete Seeger in "A Complete Unknown" definitely feels like one of those nominees picked to round out the category. Then again, Norton should have won an Oscar ages ago so maybe the Academy's tendency to give rewards out more as Life Time Achievement Awards than anything else will happen here. Either way, my pick is still...

OFFICIAL PREDICTION:

Kiernan Culkin for "A Real Pain."

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: 

While "Emelia Perez" remains a contested film in many regards, even those that dislike the movie seem to agree that Zoë Saldana is excellent in it. Much like Culkin in the other supporting category, she seems to have a considerable lead over her competition.

I would love it though if Isabella Rossellini won though. Come on, who doesn't love Isabella Rossellini? She's so cool! Have you seen "Green Porno?" It rocks! How has she never been nominated before? If she does win and dedicates her award to David Lynch, I'm going to cry. 

Felicity Jones is supposedly excellent in "The Brutalist" and she is likely the runner-up in this category, assuming anybody in the Academy actually finished watching the movie. I haven't heard a single person actually admit that Ariana Grande is good in "Wicked" but she sneaked into this category on inertia. The same is definitely true of Monica Barbaro in "A Complete Unknown," who wasn't on too many people's radar before this morning. Like I said, the Academy must've really liked that movie.

OFFICIAL PREDICTION:

Zoë Saldana for "Emelia Perez."

BEST DIRECTOR:

Out of the ninety-six previous Academy Awards, seventy of them have seen Best Director and Best Picture going to the same movie. This is why I think "Conclave's" Best Picture odds are not as secure as many are saying. Its director, Edward Berger, was passed by for a nomination. The spot that was probably meant to be his instead went to James Mangold for "A Complete Unknown," as further evidence of the Academy digging that one more than anticipated. 

This means whoever wins Best Director seems to depend largely on which way the wind ends up blowing. If "The Brutalist" becomes the evening's favorite, Brady Corbet wins Best Director. He is, by far, the most respectable choice. If the Academy inexplicably ends up adoring "Emelia Perez," Jacques Audiard gets it.

There's a chance that Coralie Fargeat – again, primarily a horror filmmaker – might win for "The Substance." That would be kind of cool. I do think Sean Baker will get a Best Director Oscar some day but I don't think it'll be for "Anora," likely to lose in this category to flashier fair. 

OFFICIAL PREDICTION:

Brady Corbet for "The Brutalist," I hope. 

BEST WRITING:

Sean Baker's odds of winning Best Director are low precisely because "Anora" is the kind of scrappy picture that usually wins Best Original Screenplay instead. It's currently the fave in that category. My gut tells me "The Substance" might pull off an upset and "The Brutalist" might sweep through this category as well. "A Real Pain" getting nominated in this category was a real surprise. "September 5" was an award season favorite for many but the Academy only gave it a nod in this category. 

As for Best Adapted Screenplay, it's in a similar split as Best Picture. Will "Emelia Perez" continue to be beloved by voters and pick up a statue here? Will "Conclave" lose out on Best Picture but snatch this award? Are "Sing Sing" and "Nickel Boys" the kind of sensitive indie flicks that the writing branch tends to favor? What was so fucking impressive about "A Complete Unknown's" screenplay exactly? All questions we will probably never get answers too.

OFFICIAL PREDICTION:

"Anora" and "Emelia Perez." (Rooting for "The Substance" though.)

BEST MUSIC:

In a year in which two musicals dominate the majority of categories, you would think the Best Song slate would be stronger than it is. The line-up is so mediocre this year that Diane Warren, on her sixteenth nomination without a win, might actually win this year. She wrote a sappy ballad for Tyler Perry's Netflix thing, “The Six Triple Eight.” “The Journey” is a perfectly serviceable little inspirational ballad, the exact type of thing Warren specializes in. I think the song leans too much on repeating the chorus and H.E.R.'s vocals strike me as a bit overwrought. However, if this is the song that finally ends the running joke of the Academy nominating Warren every year for some damn reason, I'm fine with that.

Someone else the Academy is clearly a big fan of is Elton John. They made a documentary about his farewell tour this year called “Elton John: Never Too Late.” The seventies ivory tickler and his BFF Bernie Taupin naturally wrote an original song for it, a duet with Brandi Carlile. I actually think Carlile's contribution to the song features some nice melodies but the song definitely doesn't represent Sir Elton's best work. Not even as good as “I'm Gonna Love Me Again,” the “Rocketman” winner from a few years back. Pretty but hardly a classic.  

Probably my favorite of the Best Song nominees is “Like a Bird,” from “Sing Sing.” The guitar melody that opens and closes the song is pretty and the chorus is catchy. Adrian Quesada's vocals convey a lot of emotion without overdoing it. There's a funky guitar solo in the middle too, which I appreciate. 

The rest of the Best Songs nominees are from “Emilia Perez.” A movie getting multiple nominations in the Best Song category tends to split the vote and weaken its strength overall “Mi Camino,” Selena Gomez' big number from that movie, still feels like the likeliest number to win. I wouldn't go so far as to call myself a Selena Gomez fan but I do think she has a nice voice and it gets a decent representation here. I actually don't mind the pop/disco dance beat on the number's latter half either. It's more radio friendly than “El Mal,” the other song from “Emilia Perez.” I admittedly don't speak Spanish but I do find Zoe Saldana's rap-singing mildly silly sounding.

As for the Best Original Scores... The music for “The Brualist” is from artsy indie rocker, Daniel Blumberg. The soundtrack features three separate overtures, which should give you a good idea of what you're getting into. It's a long score for a long movie and I've listened to the whole thing twice, in hopes of understanding its appeal. Might have to conclude that this is one of those things simply Not For Me. Blumberg's music is certainly bold – it ends with a synthwave dance number – but I'm not sure his mixture of jazzy abstraction, piano tinkling minimalism, long pauses, discordant noises, and bigger orchestral movements are necessarily to my taste. The tracks “Pennsylvania” and “Steel” are probably my favorites. 

Volker Bertelmann's percussion heavy score for “All Quiet on the Western Front” became a running joke two years ago during the ceremony, as the show organizers played snippets from it every time the movie won something. Unsurprisingly, the same director/composer duo produced similar results with the soundtrack to “Conclave.” I liked Bertelmann's previous score and I like this one too, which is moody with a strong propulsive energy throughout. 

Kris Bowers' score for “The Wild Robot” is probably exactly what you imagine in your head when you hear what the film is: A nature-focused and only slightly quirky sci-fi fable for Tumblr Adults. I feel like this is something I'd hear in the background of a Barnes & Noble. A perfectly cromulent soundtrack for a movie I'd rate at about the same level. 

The actual, orchestral score for “Emilia Perez” getting nominated feels unearned. The songs are the stars of that movie while the music itself... It's not bad! I just don't know if it truly deserved a nomination over a few other scores I could highlight. The other big musical of the year, “Wicked,” earned a nomination too. It's odd to me that the Academy disqualified a few sequels for reusing melodies but this score – which obviously features riffs on songs from the Broadway music – was allowed to compete. Stephen Schwartz and John Powell's score is very pastoral and sweeping. Reminds me of a nineties Disney movie, which was surely the intentional. Again, not bad but I wouldn't have nominated it. 

OTHER FILM CATEGORIES:

One of my top picks from last year was "Flow," a dialogue free animated feature from Latvia, made by a small crew with low budget resources. I figured all those factors made it a long shot at the Oscars but, delightfully, "Flow" has become an award season favorite. It got nominated for both Animated Feature and International Feature. The Academy voters notoriously have a stick up their collective asses about animation, so I wouldn't be surprised if they shrug and end up awarding "Inside Out 2" but the odds seem to favor "Flow" at the moment. At least the Academy ignored the incredibly mediocre "Moana 2," instead filling the category with the latest "Wallace and Gromit" adventure, stop-motion dramedy "Memoir of a Snail," and "The Wild Robot." I didn't like the latter two as much as many did but this is still a pretty solid lineup. 

Aside from the post-apocalyptic CGI cat movie, most of the International Feature nominees were expected. I've heard non-stop raves about "The Girl with the Needle" and "The Seed of the Sacred Fig," so anticipated nods for that. Considering how much the Academy liked "I'm Still Here" and "Emelia Perez," I'm not surprised they placed either. I fully expect the latter to win in this category, which will hopefully be enough to keep it away from Best Picture. 

As I always do, I have a lot of catching up to do with the shorts and documentary nomination. I haven't seen "Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat" but I like its title. 

MISCELLANEOUS:

I said above that horror – usually the genre the Academy dismisses the most – had an unusually strong showing this year. Aside from "The Substance" earning some high-profile nominations, Robert Eggers' "Nosferatu" picked up nods for Make-Up, Costumes, Cinematography, and Production Design. I suspected the first two would probably happen but the other two are a surprise. I still think "The Substance's" blood-gushing, pulsating body horror will win Make-Up but it just makes me happy to see genre cinema dominating this category. The other picks were for absurdist sci-fi comedy "A Different Man" – if Sebastian Stan wins Best Actor, I'm going to pretend it's for this movie instead – and "Wicked," which does qualify as a fantasy film. "Emelia Perez" is the only "boring" movie in that category this year. They couldn't have given that last slot to "Beetlejuice Beetlejuice?" Makes this Fangoria reader's heart happy to see it. 

I do expect "Wicked" to win in most of the technical categories, Best Production Design and Best Costumes seeming like sure bets. Best Visual Effects is unusually chimpanzee heavy this year, with both "Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes" and "Better Man" securing nominations. The former seems like the obvious winner to me but the Academy will probably favor the epic scope of "Dune: Part Two." Oh yeah, "Alien: Romulus" also picked up a Visual Effects nomination, another win for the horror crowd even if I was largely disappointed in that sequel. 

Also, did you know the cinematographer of "The Brutalist" has the first name of LOL? I doubt anybody else finds that as funny as me. Also also, I usually think the Editing category is phoned in every year but they really weren't trying this year. All the more baffling when the kinetic visuals of "The Substance" were right there, man. 

Conan O'Brien is the host for this year's Oscar ceremonies, which is the first time in years I've actually been excited to see how the ceremony might go, rather than dreading it. All of this is assuming that L.A. doesn't totally burn to the ground by March 2nd, which sounds like a sick joke but is actually a totally warranted fear at the moment. No matter when or where it happens, I will be live-blogging the broadcast for an eager audience of nobody, because that's just how I do it. I'm glad Hulu is simulcasting the show this year cause I cut cable finally. And now, the quest to hunt down, watch, and review all the nominees I haven't seen begins!