What was supposed to be the opening paragraph for my annual run-down of the Oscar nominations instead turned into its own lengthy rant. So I won't waste any more time. Here are my sure-to-be wildly inaccurate predictions and reflections upon 2026's slate of Academy Award nominated motion pictures.
BEST PICTURE:
People who treat cinema too like sports betting have debated whether Ryan Coogler's "Sinners" made enough money to justify what Warner Bros. spent on it. Which is a silly question, as the movie clearly resonated with audiences and was one of the year's best reviewed titles. Now, it has received 16 Oscar nominations, more than any other film this year and more than any other film ever before.
Predictably, this has led to a backlash, folks who previously loved the movie saying a bloody vampire yarn doesn't deserve Best Picture. Or that it only got so many nominations out of white liberal guilt causing the pasty Academy voters to overrate the movie. That this isn't the right kind of black cinema that should be recognized. There might be some truth to the former point and I'm certainly not going to weigh in on the latter. I'll simply say that "Sinners" was also my favorite film of 2025 and I don't think that's because I'm trying too hard to prove how not-racist I am. I think it's because "Sinners" rocks.
I'm sure people will continue to argue this point up until Oscar night. If "Sinners" doesn't win Best Picture, I expect the talking point to immediately shift back to #OscarsSoWhite territory. Every prognosticator right now says Paul Thomas Anderson's "One Battle After Another" is the film most likely to spoil the vampire flick's success. It's a fine film, still pulpier than your usual Oscar Bait, and very relevant to the troubled times we are living in. When you combine that with the likelihood of Academy voters turning their noses up at a vampire movie or the sense that PTA is overdue for some Oscar gold, the odds of "One Battle After Another" scooping up the top prize increases.
That two quirky – by the standard of Best Picture nominees – movies such as these are facing off points towards 2026 being a somewhat unusual slate. Is there any "normal" Oscar Bait this year? "F1," probably. "Marty Supreme" and "Hamnet," being character centric dramas about a difficult sports champ and the personal life of the Bard, would normally classify. However, even those movies are grittier in focus or more indie in their aesthetic than we typically expect from For Your Consideration campaigns. It certainly says something about this line-up that a new "Frankenstein" movie is the closest thing to the usual prestige costume drama, sweeping epic about the courage of the human spirit that is on the plate this year.
For further evidence of this, look at the flicks rounding up the category. "Train Dreams" is a whispery drama, admittedly one based on a beloved novel. "The Secret Agent" is a Brazilian film. "Bugonia" is surely among the most aggressively off-beat movies ever nominated in this category. "Sentimental Value," a well observed drama partially set in the film industry, would likely be the expected winner in a different year and even it is a smaller production made outside the Hollywood system.
I can't say if this is a sign of changing taste or anything. Every step forward the Academy makes is usually followed by them giving "Green Book" or "CODA" Best Picture. But it does seem to be indicative of something to me, of either a younger crowd making up more of the AMPAS voting body, a indicator of a studio system utterly afraid of creative risks, or simply a reflection of the chaotic times we are all living in. So who will win?
OFFICIAL PREDICTION:
"Sinners"
People who treat cinema too like sports betting have debated whether Ryan Coogler's "Sinners" made enough money to justify what Warner Bros. spent on it. Which is a silly question, as the movie clearly resonated with audiences and was one of the year's best reviewed titles. Now, it has received 16 Oscar nominations, more than any other film this year and more than any other film ever before.
Predictably, this has led to a backlash, folks who previously loved the movie saying a bloody vampire yarn doesn't deserve Best Picture. Or that it only got so many nominations out of white liberal guilt causing the pasty Academy voters to overrate the movie. That this isn't the right kind of black cinema that should be recognized. There might be some truth to the former point and I'm certainly not going to weigh in on the latter. I'll simply say that "Sinners" was also my favorite film of 2025 and I don't think that's because I'm trying too hard to prove how not-racist I am. I think it's because "Sinners" rocks.
I'm sure people will continue to argue this point up until Oscar night. If "Sinners" doesn't win Best Picture, I expect the talking point to immediately shift back to #OscarsSoWhite territory. Every prognosticator right now says Paul Thomas Anderson's "One Battle After Another" is the film most likely to spoil the vampire flick's success. It's a fine film, still pulpier than your usual Oscar Bait, and very relevant to the troubled times we are living in. When you combine that with the likelihood of Academy voters turning their noses up at a vampire movie or the sense that PTA is overdue for some Oscar gold, the odds of "One Battle After Another" scooping up the top prize increases.
That two quirky – by the standard of Best Picture nominees – movies such as these are facing off points towards 2026 being a somewhat unusual slate. Is there any "normal" Oscar Bait this year? "F1," probably. "Marty Supreme" and "Hamnet," being character centric dramas about a difficult sports champ and the personal life of the Bard, would normally classify. However, even those movies are grittier in focus or more indie in their aesthetic than we typically expect from For Your Consideration campaigns. It certainly says something about this line-up that a new "Frankenstein" movie is the closest thing to the usual prestige costume drama, sweeping epic about the courage of the human spirit that is on the plate this year.
For further evidence of this, look at the flicks rounding up the category. "Train Dreams" is a whispery drama, admittedly one based on a beloved novel. "The Secret Agent" is a Brazilian film. "Bugonia" is surely among the most aggressively off-beat movies ever nominated in this category. "Sentimental Value," a well observed drama partially set in the film industry, would likely be the expected winner in a different year and even it is a smaller production made outside the Hollywood system.
I can't say if this is a sign of changing taste or anything. Every step forward the Academy makes is usually followed by them giving "Green Book" or "CODA" Best Picture. But it does seem to be indicative of something to me, of either a younger crowd making up more of the AMPAS voting body, a indicator of a studio system utterly afraid of creative risks, or simply a reflection of the chaotic times we are all living in. So who will win?
OFFICIAL PREDICTION:
"Sinners"
BEST ACTOR:
"One Battle After Another" and "Sinners" are going head-to-head in most of the top categories this year. Amusingly, Best Actor does not seem to be one where either film is likely to succeed. I think Michael B. Jordan would be my personal pick, if only because he is actually giving two excellent performances. Leo DiCaprio in "OBAA" seems currently to have the buzzier buzz of the performances.
And if Leo hasn't already climbed inside a dead horse, I think he would be a lock. Instead, another award being given out to honor a star's legacy more so than one performance has a lock on Best Actor. I don't mean Ethan Hawke in "Blue Moon," a movie that seems to have gotten little attention outside of Hawke's performance.
Nah, this moment belongs to Timmy. Yanno, I still don't know if Chalamet is an actor I find enormously compelling. He's pretty good and I've liked him in a couple of things. I have no opinion on the conversation over whether he misled us all by merely cosplaying as a sensitive soft boy, when he's actually a crass, Kylie dating dude-bro. (Other than finding it kind of funny.) However, it seems clear to me that Chalamet has been shaping a narrative around himself as the Next Great Leading Man by keenly picking a smart mix of indie fair and hipper big budget vehicles. Last year's Bob Dylan movie was his big swing for an Oscar and he was on the campaign trail boldly declaring himself the Greatest of All Time. This was a tactic that clearly positioned him as this year's Best Actor winner via pure inertia, whether "Marty Supreme" ended up being any good or not. And Academy voters tend to find narratives like that hard to resist. Sorry, Wagner Moura. Better luck next time.
OFFICIAL PREDICTION:
Timothee Chalamet for "Marty Supreme."
"One Battle After Another" and "Sinners" are going head-to-head in most of the top categories this year. Amusingly, Best Actor does not seem to be one where either film is likely to succeed. I think Michael B. Jordan would be my personal pick, if only because he is actually giving two excellent performances. Leo DiCaprio in "OBAA" seems currently to have the buzzier buzz of the performances.
And if Leo hasn't already climbed inside a dead horse, I think he would be a lock. Instead, another award being given out to honor a star's legacy more so than one performance has a lock on Best Actor. I don't mean Ethan Hawke in "Blue Moon," a movie that seems to have gotten little attention outside of Hawke's performance.
Nah, this moment belongs to Timmy. Yanno, I still don't know if Chalamet is an actor I find enormously compelling. He's pretty good and I've liked him in a couple of things. I have no opinion on the conversation over whether he misled us all by merely cosplaying as a sensitive soft boy, when he's actually a crass, Kylie dating dude-bro. (Other than finding it kind of funny.) However, it seems clear to me that Chalamet has been shaping a narrative around himself as the Next Great Leading Man by keenly picking a smart mix of indie fair and hipper big budget vehicles. Last year's Bob Dylan movie was his big swing for an Oscar and he was on the campaign trail boldly declaring himself the Greatest of All Time. This was a tactic that clearly positioned him as this year's Best Actor winner via pure inertia, whether "Marty Supreme" ended up being any good or not. And Academy voters tend to find narratives like that hard to resist. Sorry, Wagner Moura. Better luck next time.
OFFICIAL PREDICTION:
Timothee Chalamet for "Marty Supreme."
BEST ACTRESS:
If you had asked me a few months back what the safest bet for Best Picture would be, I would've gone with "Hamnet." A story of Shakespeare's wife grieving the loss of her child and how it influences her husband's creative process seemed like a good mixture of currently trendy elements and evergreen respectable topics. However, the rivalry between "Sinners" and "One Battle" has pushed "Hamnet" into third place or lower in most of the big categories... Except for Best Actress. Jessie Buckley's emotional tidal wave of a performance has been earmarked as an Oscar winner since the movie first showed up on the festival circuit.
The only name that seems likely a possible spoiler for Buckley's success is Ross Byrne in "If I Had Legs, I'd Kick You." Among the Film Twitter, this is definitely the coolest of this year's noms and Byrne is the fan favorite to win. However, the Academy didn't seem to like the movie as much. If the tide of buzz and hype doesn't shift in the next month, I think Byrne is destined to be the runner-up.
Emma Stone getting nominated for "Bugonia" is further proof the voters liked that one more than I expected. It also feels like residual good will from "Poor Thing's" success last year. Renate Reinsve is the newcomer, an unknown plucked out of obscurity for "Sentimental Value" and suddenly among the industry's biggest names. It's a nice story but I don't think she'll win.
2026 has been surprisingly devoid of "villain" movies, widely disliked or panned motion pictures that inexplicably charmed Academy members. "Wicked: For Good" and "Jay Kelly" were both locked out. "The Smashing Machine" got pushed into a single nomination in Makeup and Hairstyling. Nobody seems that enthusiastic about "F1" but nobody seems to hate it either. That leaves one movie long proclaimed utterly mid somehow sneaking in a major nomination: Kate Hudson for "Sing Sung Blues," the biopic about Neil Diamond impersonators. I've already seen one person bemoaning that Hudson stole the spot that rightfully belonged to "Sorry, Baby's" Eva Victor and I'm sure there are plenty of other choices that would've rounded out this category. But the Academy's unpredictable tendency to sneak some random bullshit in is part of what makes them fun, at least for me anyway. (At least until I have to watch the bad movies.)
OFFICIAL PREDICTION:
Jessie Buckley for "Hamnet."
If you had asked me a few months back what the safest bet for Best Picture would be, I would've gone with "Hamnet." A story of Shakespeare's wife grieving the loss of her child and how it influences her husband's creative process seemed like a good mixture of currently trendy elements and evergreen respectable topics. However, the rivalry between "Sinners" and "One Battle" has pushed "Hamnet" into third place or lower in most of the big categories... Except for Best Actress. Jessie Buckley's emotional tidal wave of a performance has been earmarked as an Oscar winner since the movie first showed up on the festival circuit.
The only name that seems likely a possible spoiler for Buckley's success is Ross Byrne in "If I Had Legs, I'd Kick You." Among the Film Twitter, this is definitely the coolest of this year's noms and Byrne is the fan favorite to win. However, the Academy didn't seem to like the movie as much. If the tide of buzz and hype doesn't shift in the next month, I think Byrne is destined to be the runner-up.
Emma Stone getting nominated for "Bugonia" is further proof the voters liked that one more than I expected. It also feels like residual good will from "Poor Thing's" success last year. Renate Reinsve is the newcomer, an unknown plucked out of obscurity for "Sentimental Value" and suddenly among the industry's biggest names. It's a nice story but I don't think she'll win.
2026 has been surprisingly devoid of "villain" movies, widely disliked or panned motion pictures that inexplicably charmed Academy members. "Wicked: For Good" and "Jay Kelly" were both locked out. "The Smashing Machine" got pushed into a single nomination in Makeup and Hairstyling. Nobody seems that enthusiastic about "F1" but nobody seems to hate it either. That leaves one movie long proclaimed utterly mid somehow sneaking in a major nomination: Kate Hudson for "Sing Sung Blues," the biopic about Neil Diamond impersonators. I've already seen one person bemoaning that Hudson stole the spot that rightfully belonged to "Sorry, Baby's" Eva Victor and I'm sure there are plenty of other choices that would've rounded out this category. But the Academy's unpredictable tendency to sneak some random bullshit in is part of what makes them fun, at least for me anyway. (At least until I have to watch the bad movies.)
OFFICIAL PREDICTION:
Jessie Buckley for "Hamnet."
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
One of the things about "Sinners" that so delighted and surprised me was Delroy Lindo's incredibly textured, lived-in, funny performance. It's the type of acting that makes you go "Wow, this guy is great." Despite that, nobody expected Lindo to get an Oscar nomination because he's mostly been left out of award season. Maybe the Academy realized they fucked up when they passed Lindo over for "Da 5 Bloods" a while back. Either way, I'm really happy they selected him.
Maybe Lindo sneaked in because Best Supporting Actor doesn't have a sure-fire winner this year. The attempt to campaign Paul Mascel in "Hamnet" for this category, despite him clearly being the lead, seemed to have backfired. That didn't only leave room for Lindo but also for "One Battle After Another" to take up two slots. Personally, between Benicio del Toro and Sean Penn, I probably would've nominated the latter.
Who does that leave to win? Even the people who didn't like Guillermo del Toro's "Frankenstein" that much seemed to praise Jacob Elordi's take on the creature. I liked him too and, obviously, I think it would be awesome if somebody won an Oscar for playing Frankenstein's monster. However, Elordi is still young. He hasn't taken his lumps as a character actor or Hollywood star. Stellan Skarsgård, meanwhile, has been giving memorable turns in smaller productions, worked with a murderer's row of beloved auteurs, sired some famous sons, and lent his particular gravitas to big budget flicks for years now. Somehow, he's never been nominated for an Oscar in all that time. "Sentimental Value" has changed that and I expect that the common idea will be that the 74 year old industry veteran has earned a win too.
OFFICIAL PREDICTION:
Stellan Skarsgård for "Sentimental Value."
One of the things about "Sinners" that so delighted and surprised me was Delroy Lindo's incredibly textured, lived-in, funny performance. It's the type of acting that makes you go "Wow, this guy is great." Despite that, nobody expected Lindo to get an Oscar nomination because he's mostly been left out of award season. Maybe the Academy realized they fucked up when they passed Lindo over for "Da 5 Bloods" a while back. Either way, I'm really happy they selected him.
Maybe Lindo sneaked in because Best Supporting Actor doesn't have a sure-fire winner this year. The attempt to campaign Paul Mascel in "Hamnet" for this category, despite him clearly being the lead, seemed to have backfired. That didn't only leave room for Lindo but also for "One Battle After Another" to take up two slots. Personally, between Benicio del Toro and Sean Penn, I probably would've nominated the latter.
Who does that leave to win? Even the people who didn't like Guillermo del Toro's "Frankenstein" that much seemed to praise Jacob Elordi's take on the creature. I liked him too and, obviously, I think it would be awesome if somebody won an Oscar for playing Frankenstein's monster. However, Elordi is still young. He hasn't taken his lumps as a character actor or Hollywood star. Stellan Skarsgård, meanwhile, has been giving memorable turns in smaller productions, worked with a murderer's row of beloved auteurs, sired some famous sons, and lent his particular gravitas to big budget flicks for years now. Somehow, he's never been nominated for an Oscar in all that time. "Sentimental Value" has changed that and I expect that the common idea will be that the 74 year old industry veteran has earned a win too.
OFFICIAL PREDICTION:
Stellan Skarsgård for "Sentimental Value."
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
The Academy, in fact, really liked "Sentimental Value." Elle Fanning's supporting turn in that one has been widely praised and a Best Supporting Actress nomination for her was expected. (Kind of surprising that this is the first nomination for anyone in the Fanning Dynasty.) However, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas' nomination for the same film was a bit of a surprise. The Swedish actress was pretty much entirely unknown over here before this film so it was nice that she got noticed.
Elle still has a decent shot at winning but I think a few other names are outshining her at the moment. Wunmi Mosaku has picked up a laundry list of nominations from various critics award shows and ceremonies but not too many wins. This is a bummer, since she's the heart and soul of “Sinners,” in my opinion. There's a part of me that wonders if she'll pull off a surprise win with the Academy.
But probably not. How about another horror movie that managed to move pass the Academy's stigma against the macabre stuff to earn a nomination? My sarcastic prediction that “Weapons” would follow in “Get Out's” footsteps and win a Best Original Screenplay Oscar did not come to pass. However, Creggor's clever tale of witchcraft in a small town did sneak into Best Supporting Actress. This makes sense, as Amy Madigan's turn as Aunt Gladys was one of the few times last year when someone pointed at a character in a movie and shouted, “Oh, this is the one people are going to remember in twenty years.” Essaying such an immediately striking character certainly should be enough to give Madigan the win and there's still a slight chance of that. I still am getting the general impression that, while “Weapons” might be the kind of movie to be nominated for an Oscar, it is not the kind of movie that wins an Oscar.
Alright, so who is the probable winner in this category? Teyana Taylor in “One Battle After Another” has less screen time than any of the other principal characters in the film. However, the impression she makes on the audience is such that her shadow floats over the entire story. That's some real star power, when someone is felt even long after they have exited the story. I suspect this will lead Taylor to a win.
OFFICIAL PREDICTION:
Tetayna Taylor for “One Battle After Another.”
The Academy, in fact, really liked "Sentimental Value." Elle Fanning's supporting turn in that one has been widely praised and a Best Supporting Actress nomination for her was expected. (Kind of surprising that this is the first nomination for anyone in the Fanning Dynasty.) However, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas' nomination for the same film was a bit of a surprise. The Swedish actress was pretty much entirely unknown over here before this film so it was nice that she got noticed.
Elle still has a decent shot at winning but I think a few other names are outshining her at the moment. Wunmi Mosaku has picked up a laundry list of nominations from various critics award shows and ceremonies but not too many wins. This is a bummer, since she's the heart and soul of “Sinners,” in my opinion. There's a part of me that wonders if she'll pull off a surprise win with the Academy.
But probably not. How about another horror movie that managed to move pass the Academy's stigma against the macabre stuff to earn a nomination? My sarcastic prediction that “Weapons” would follow in “Get Out's” footsteps and win a Best Original Screenplay Oscar did not come to pass. However, Creggor's clever tale of witchcraft in a small town did sneak into Best Supporting Actress. This makes sense, as Amy Madigan's turn as Aunt Gladys was one of the few times last year when someone pointed at a character in a movie and shouted, “Oh, this is the one people are going to remember in twenty years.” Essaying such an immediately striking character certainly should be enough to give Madigan the win and there's still a slight chance of that. I still am getting the general impression that, while “Weapons” might be the kind of movie to be nominated for an Oscar, it is not the kind of movie that wins an Oscar.
Alright, so who is the probable winner in this category? Teyana Taylor in “One Battle After Another” has less screen time than any of the other principal characters in the film. However, the impression she makes on the audience is such that her shadow floats over the entire story. That's some real star power, when someone is felt even long after they have exited the story. I suspect this will lead Taylor to a win.
OFFICIAL PREDICTION:
Tetayna Taylor for “One Battle After Another.”
BEST DIRECTOR:
The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences are notoriously bad at recognizing generational talent in their generation. Hindsight is 20/20, of course, which is maybe why great artist are inevitably passed over for their best movies and instead get an Oscar as essentially a Lifetime Achievement Award. Call this the “Scent of a Woman” Award. Not that I am implying that “One Battle After Another” is Paul Thomas Anderson hoo-ha-ing it up. I liked the movie, plenty. However, it definitely says something that the Academy forgot to give this beloved, critically adored auteur an Oscar for “There Will Be Blood” or “Magnolia.” That enough time has passed for someone to realize that they fucked up. That a Best Director Oscar is considerably overdue for this gentleman.
So P.T. is a lock for Best Director, right? People much more clued into these sort of things than me seem to think so. However, there's this gnawing sense in me that Ryan Coogler probably should win. I have no doubt that the heated race between these two will continue up until the night of the ceremony. I would love it if Anderson finally got his Best Director statue. However, I cannot overlook the sense that Coogler is the one that really earned it this year.
What about the rest of the slate? Chloe Zhao won a couple years back and I don't think “Hamnet” speaks to the moment quite as specifically as “Nomadland” did. Everybody I follow on Twitter loves the Safdie brothers' previous movies. I suspect that the Academy is a bit late catching up with that reputation with these two as well. The brothers are no longer directing together but Josh did grabbed a nom for “Marty Supreme.” This leaves Joachim Trier to round out the slate. The warm reception that greeted “The Worst Person in the World” a few years back was clearly a precursor to the Academy embracing “Sentimental Value.” Trier is also, quite clearly, standing in fifth place.
OFFICIAL PREDICTION:
Ryan Coogler for “Sinners.'
The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences are notoriously bad at recognizing generational talent in their generation. Hindsight is 20/20, of course, which is maybe why great artist are inevitably passed over for their best movies and instead get an Oscar as essentially a Lifetime Achievement Award. Call this the “Scent of a Woman” Award. Not that I am implying that “One Battle After Another” is Paul Thomas Anderson hoo-ha-ing it up. I liked the movie, plenty. However, it definitely says something that the Academy forgot to give this beloved, critically adored auteur an Oscar for “There Will Be Blood” or “Magnolia.” That enough time has passed for someone to realize that they fucked up. That a Best Director Oscar is considerably overdue for this gentleman.
So P.T. is a lock for Best Director, right? People much more clued into these sort of things than me seem to think so. However, there's this gnawing sense in me that Ryan Coogler probably should win. I have no doubt that the heated race between these two will continue up until the night of the ceremony. I would love it if Anderson finally got his Best Director statue. However, I cannot overlook the sense that Coogler is the one that really earned it this year.
What about the rest of the slate? Chloe Zhao won a couple years back and I don't think “Hamnet” speaks to the moment quite as specifically as “Nomadland” did. Everybody I follow on Twitter loves the Safdie brothers' previous movies. I suspect that the Academy is a bit late catching up with that reputation with these two as well. The brothers are no longer directing together but Josh did grabbed a nom for “Marty Supreme.” This leaves Joachim Trier to round out the slate. The warm reception that greeted “The Worst Person in the World” a few years back was clearly a precursor to the Academy embracing “Sentimental Value.” Trier is also, quite clearly, standing in fifth place.
OFFICIAL PREDICTION:
Ryan Coogler for “Sinners.'
BEST WRITING:
I feel like I'm repeating myself here but 2026 truly is looking to be the battle between “Sinners” and “One Battle After Another.” Notably, both films are nominated on opposing sides of the Best Screenplay categories. It seems almost inevitable that the Academy will split the difference, handing “Sinners” Original Screenplay and “Battle” Adapted Screenplay. This showdown is dominating things to the degree that the rest of the Screenplay line-up feels almost uninspired. The voters basically split the two categories between most of the Best Picture nominees. “Marty,” “Hamnet,” “Frankenstein,” “Bugnoia,” “Train Dreams,” and “Sentimental Value” all got their expected nods.
This makes the outliers almost more worthy of discussion. Aside from Ethan Hawke's notice in Best Actor, “Blue Moon” picked up an Original Screenplay notice. One of the more prominent snubs of this season has been “It Was Just an Accident” – among 2025's best reviewed motion picture – being left out of the Best Picture race. It scored a token nomination within the International Film category but, outside of that, Original Screenplay is the only place it managed to reappear. I didn't quite understand that movie, like at all, but I fully expect others to use this exclusion as further evidence of the Academy being out of touch or whatnot.
OFFICIAL PREDICTION:
“Sinners” and “One Battle After Another.”
I feel like I'm repeating myself here but 2026 truly is looking to be the battle between “Sinners” and “One Battle After Another.” Notably, both films are nominated on opposing sides of the Best Screenplay categories. It seems almost inevitable that the Academy will split the difference, handing “Sinners” Original Screenplay and “Battle” Adapted Screenplay. This showdown is dominating things to the degree that the rest of the Screenplay line-up feels almost uninspired. The voters basically split the two categories between most of the Best Picture nominees. “Marty,” “Hamnet,” “Frankenstein,” “Bugnoia,” “Train Dreams,” and “Sentimental Value” all got their expected nods.
This makes the outliers almost more worthy of discussion. Aside from Ethan Hawke's notice in Best Actor, “Blue Moon” picked up an Original Screenplay notice. One of the more prominent snubs of this season has been “It Was Just an Accident” – among 2025's best reviewed motion picture – being left out of the Best Picture race. It scored a token nomination within the International Film category but, outside of that, Original Screenplay is the only place it managed to reappear. I didn't quite understand that movie, like at all, but I fully expect others to use this exclusion as further evidence of the Academy being out of touch or whatnot.
OFFICIAL PREDICTION:
“Sinners” and “One Battle After Another.”
BEST MUSIC:
“It Was Just An Accident” is a million miles away, in terms of content and intended viewers, from another much discussed 2025 release. Critics adored the former while a mass audience went absolutely crazy for “KPop Demon Hunters.” However, the two films are united by me not really understanding either of them. I especially did not understand why so many have found the songs in “KPop Demon Hunters” so infectious. They all sounded equally overproduced to me! “Golden” is built on overpowering bass thumps and walls of processed pop sound. This overcomes breathy and soaring vocals that scan to me as more mumbled than distinct and generic lyrics about believing in yourself and realizing your own potential, when you can actually hear or understand what is being sung at all. It's kind of catchy, the same way the flu is, because it's been expertly engineered and designed to hit all the right rises and falls that burrow into your ear. Pop music like this is, to use a Twitter meme, all hype moments and aura and zero substance to my ears. However, “Golden” is a massive crossover hit, the likes of which we haven't seen since at least “We Don't Talk About Bruno.” The Academy fucked up real bad with that one but I don't expect that to be the case here. “Golden” will win Best Original Song because it must. The forces of cultural inertia are simply too powerful to resist.
That “Golden” is definitely going to win is dispiriting for another reason. Last year, Diane Warren received an honorary Oscar. I had hoped this would bring an end to the running gag of nominating her in the Best Original Song category – for whatever random-ass movie she made a song for that year – but never giving her an actual win. Instead, someone made a whole documentary about Warren. Of course, she wrote a new song for it and, of course, it had to be nominated. “Dear Me,” like so many of Warren's composition, is fine. There's a pretty piano melody in there, under the crushing pop mixing. Kesha's vocals are alright, the lyrics of self-realization and empathy are okay. Not a snowball's chance in hell of winning. Better next year, Diane?
Speaking of random-ass movies! It simply would not be a proper Oscar nomination line-up if some movie not a single soul had heard of before didn't sneak in somewhere. This year's mystery pick was “Viva Verdi!,' a documentary about opera singers that had about forty views on Letterboxd before the nominations were announced. “Sweet Dreams of Joy” is the song. Opera is not typically my genre but this is pretty. Simple but immediately striking piano keys are combined with the kind of singing that impressively dances up and down the musical scale, before the expected inspiring strings join in. Hey, that's nice.
The respected rock poet contributing to the Best Song slate this year is Nick Cave, who performs the title song for “Train Dreams.” Cave's grumbling singing and elaborately twisting words – this is a song about seeing weird shit on the frontier – have almost reached the level of self-parody by now. But I like this kind of bullshit so I can get plenty out of the song. Bryce Dessner's backing music builds on this nicely.
“I Lied to You” from “Sinners” contributed to probably the coolest moment in what is one of last year's coolest movies. I'm too much of a white boy to have much insight into the nuances of the blues but the guitar picking, soulful singing, and jangly piano keys sound cool as hell to me. That's before “I Lied to You” manages to synthasize about a dozen different styles of soul music from across the last fifty years, turning the song into a concussive history lesson on the evolution of blues' influence. As among 2025's most striking musical moments, it should win Best Original Song but I don't think HUNTRX can be defeated.
I expect “Sinners'” loss in Best Song will be vindicated by Ludwig Göransson's soundtrack winning Best Original Score. The mixture of traditional blues and folk music with harder rock guitar, bursts of action movie energy, and spiritual choirs is clearly the stand-out among the nominees in this category. Jonny Greenwood's “One Battle After Another” score is a nice blend of sparser sounds, lusher orchestration, and some quirkier intrigue here and there that add a lot of texture.
Alexandre Desplat's score for “Frankenstein” certainly sounds like what you would expect from a grand, costume drama adaptation of a classic work of horror literature and it's good at it. But I wish it embraced those bolder, more gothic sounds more often. Max Richter's “Hamnet” score is built on waves of emotional strings that swell and swell and suits a film about interior lives and heavy emotions. It's a bit too minimalist to be listen to on its own though. I like Jerskin Fendrix's “Bugonia” score when it builds to grander themes or delves into some electronic weirdness, not so much when it focuses on brooding dissonance or slowly simmering moods of anxiety.
“It Was Just An Accident” is a million miles away, in terms of content and intended viewers, from another much discussed 2025 release. Critics adored the former while a mass audience went absolutely crazy for “KPop Demon Hunters.” However, the two films are united by me not really understanding either of them. I especially did not understand why so many have found the songs in “KPop Demon Hunters” so infectious. They all sounded equally overproduced to me! “Golden” is built on overpowering bass thumps and walls of processed pop sound. This overcomes breathy and soaring vocals that scan to me as more mumbled than distinct and generic lyrics about believing in yourself and realizing your own potential, when you can actually hear or understand what is being sung at all. It's kind of catchy, the same way the flu is, because it's been expertly engineered and designed to hit all the right rises and falls that burrow into your ear. Pop music like this is, to use a Twitter meme, all hype moments and aura and zero substance to my ears. However, “Golden” is a massive crossover hit, the likes of which we haven't seen since at least “We Don't Talk About Bruno.” The Academy fucked up real bad with that one but I don't expect that to be the case here. “Golden” will win Best Original Song because it must. The forces of cultural inertia are simply too powerful to resist.
That “Golden” is definitely going to win is dispiriting for another reason. Last year, Diane Warren received an honorary Oscar. I had hoped this would bring an end to the running gag of nominating her in the Best Original Song category – for whatever random-ass movie she made a song for that year – but never giving her an actual win. Instead, someone made a whole documentary about Warren. Of course, she wrote a new song for it and, of course, it had to be nominated. “Dear Me,” like so many of Warren's composition, is fine. There's a pretty piano melody in there, under the crushing pop mixing. Kesha's vocals are alright, the lyrics of self-realization and empathy are okay. Not a snowball's chance in hell of winning. Better next year, Diane?
Speaking of random-ass movies! It simply would not be a proper Oscar nomination line-up if some movie not a single soul had heard of before didn't sneak in somewhere. This year's mystery pick was “Viva Verdi!,' a documentary about opera singers that had about forty views on Letterboxd before the nominations were announced. “Sweet Dreams of Joy” is the song. Opera is not typically my genre but this is pretty. Simple but immediately striking piano keys are combined with the kind of singing that impressively dances up and down the musical scale, before the expected inspiring strings join in. Hey, that's nice.
The respected rock poet contributing to the Best Song slate this year is Nick Cave, who performs the title song for “Train Dreams.” Cave's grumbling singing and elaborately twisting words – this is a song about seeing weird shit on the frontier – have almost reached the level of self-parody by now. But I like this kind of bullshit so I can get plenty out of the song. Bryce Dessner's backing music builds on this nicely.
“I Lied to You” from “Sinners” contributed to probably the coolest moment in what is one of last year's coolest movies. I'm too much of a white boy to have much insight into the nuances of the blues but the guitar picking, soulful singing, and jangly piano keys sound cool as hell to me. That's before “I Lied to You” manages to synthasize about a dozen different styles of soul music from across the last fifty years, turning the song into a concussive history lesson on the evolution of blues' influence. As among 2025's most striking musical moments, it should win Best Original Song but I don't think HUNTRX can be defeated.
I expect “Sinners'” loss in Best Song will be vindicated by Ludwig Göransson's soundtrack winning Best Original Score. The mixture of traditional blues and folk music with harder rock guitar, bursts of action movie energy, and spiritual choirs is clearly the stand-out among the nominees in this category. Jonny Greenwood's “One Battle After Another” score is a nice blend of sparser sounds, lusher orchestration, and some quirkier intrigue here and there that add a lot of texture.
Alexandre Desplat's score for “Frankenstein” certainly sounds like what you would expect from a grand, costume drama adaptation of a classic work of horror literature and it's good at it. But I wish it embraced those bolder, more gothic sounds more often. Max Richter's “Hamnet” score is built on waves of emotional strings that swell and swell and suits a film about interior lives and heavy emotions. It's a bit too minimalist to be listen to on its own though. I like Jerskin Fendrix's “Bugonia” score when it builds to grander themes or delves into some electronic weirdness, not so much when it focuses on brooding dissonance or slowly simmering moods of anxiety.
OTHER FILM CATEGORIES:
I do like that the Academy has not stuck International Features entirely to their own category these days. On one hand, it is definitely nice that Academy voters are no longer satisfied to seclude a film to the International Features category simply because it is in another language. Obviously, "Sentimental Value" – the probable winner – and "The Secret Agent" both managed to break out in big ways while "It Was Just An Accident" and "Sirat" at least secured one other nomination. However, the tendency to simply elect the same dozen films in as many categories as possible has ended up limiting International Features a little. If this award is designed to bring attention to other films made outside of the U.S., it has backfired a little if three or four slots are taken up by movies people obviously already know about. "The Voice of Hind Rajab," from Tunisia, is the sole nominee in this category that didn't branch out into any other area. Considering the International Feature line-up is still limited to whatever the other countries around the world submit, this means fewer international movies are going to get the Academy spotlight.
Animation, on the other hand, is still largely corralled into its own ghetto. Disney and Pixar ate up two slots in Best Animated Feature with "Zootopia 2" and "Elio." While the former is currently the highest grossing animated movie in history, I again expect the pop culture phenomenon of "KPop Demon Hunters" to win. It is nice that two smaller films, "Little Amelie" and "Arco," managed to sneak in. Even if AMPAS members refuse to recognize animation across the board.
I've fallen into a bad habit of not knowing most of the nominees for Best Documentary Feature. That's because streamers like Netflix and Paramount+ have made themselves the home for a lot of buzzy docs. On one hand, that's good because it gives films that probably wouldn't have a wider audience more viewership. On the other hand, you're still not likely to see these docs advertised on the front page of the application. Meaning you won't know they are there unless you already have Heard of them. The only documentaries I see on the top page of my streaming apps are trashy, true crime shit. Excuse me if I tend to filter out streaming exclusives as worthy of less attention. Anyway, the only docs I've heard any buzz about is "The Perfect Neighbor." Does that mean it will win? I don't know.
I do like that the Academy has not stuck International Features entirely to their own category these days. On one hand, it is definitely nice that Academy voters are no longer satisfied to seclude a film to the International Features category simply because it is in another language. Obviously, "Sentimental Value" – the probable winner – and "The Secret Agent" both managed to break out in big ways while "It Was Just An Accident" and "Sirat" at least secured one other nomination. However, the tendency to simply elect the same dozen films in as many categories as possible has ended up limiting International Features a little. If this award is designed to bring attention to other films made outside of the U.S., it has backfired a little if three or four slots are taken up by movies people obviously already know about. "The Voice of Hind Rajab," from Tunisia, is the sole nominee in this category that didn't branch out into any other area. Considering the International Feature line-up is still limited to whatever the other countries around the world submit, this means fewer international movies are going to get the Academy spotlight.
Animation, on the other hand, is still largely corralled into its own ghetto. Disney and Pixar ate up two slots in Best Animated Feature with "Zootopia 2" and "Elio." While the former is currently the highest grossing animated movie in history, I again expect the pop culture phenomenon of "KPop Demon Hunters" to win. It is nice that two smaller films, "Little Amelie" and "Arco," managed to sneak in. Even if AMPAS members refuse to recognize animation across the board.
I've fallen into a bad habit of not knowing most of the nominees for Best Documentary Feature. That's because streamers like Netflix and Paramount+ have made themselves the home for a lot of buzzy docs. On one hand, that's good because it gives films that probably wouldn't have a wider audience more viewership. On the other hand, you're still not likely to see these docs advertised on the front page of the application. Meaning you won't know they are there unless you already have Heard of them. The only documentaries I see on the top page of my streaming apps are trashy, true crime shit. Excuse me if I tend to filter out streaming exclusives as worthy of less attention. Anyway, the only docs I've heard any buzz about is "The Perfect Neighbor." Does that mean it will win? I don't know.
MISCELLANEOUS:
One of my favorite movies from last year was "The Ugly Stepsister," an extremely gruesome and beautifully made Norwegian film that put a body horror spin on the old "Cinderella" story. It was announced a while back that the movie was on the Academy shortlist for Best Costumes and Make-Up and Hairstyling, which surprised me. Shudder exclusives do not typically catch the Academy's eyes. Well, the film was passed over for Costumes. Voters had to make room for "Avatar: Fire and Ash" there, raising questions about whether computer generated costumes count. However, "The Ugly Stepsister" did receive a nod in Best Makeup. It's not as funny as some grisly gore-fest getting that Oscar gold but this one is still pretty gross, so I'm satisfied. Makeup was actually kind of an unpredictable lineup this year. "Frankenstein" – probably gonna win – and "Sinners" were safe assumptions but this is the first I've heard of Japanese Kabuki drama "Kokuho." The Rock's stab at being taken seriously as an actor, "The Smashing Machine," failed to get noticed in any other category but this one. Hopefully Dwayne's mountains of money will comfort him.
This year also saw the inclusion of the first new category in something like fifty years. It wasn't the much teased Best Stunts category, which still hasn't quite made the cut. Instead, we know have Best Casting to consider. Does this mean hardworking casting directors for otherwise overlooked motion pictures got nominated? Lol no, the Academy just nominated the same five movies here as they did everywhere else. That's starting to become a real problem around these parts. "Frankenstein" is actually the front runner in several technical categories, like Costumes and Production Design. Makes this old monster kid feel proud. (The movie also earned a Cinematography nod, despite how many people I saw online saying the film looked too dark or flat. Who is more full of shit, Film Twitter agitators or Academy members?) "Avatar," of course, is expected to win Visual Effects. However, that category did contain a few surprises. Remember when Paul Greengrass was still a big deal? He made some disaster movie called "The Lost Bus" this year that completely slipped pass my radar but the Visual Effects arm of the Academy must have been impressed by it. Another surprise was "Jurassic World Rebirth" getting a nomination here. This is somehow the first time any entry into the much loathed "Jurassic World" sub-series has gotten an Oscar nomination. I mean, say what you will about those movies but the digital effects in them are always fantastic. I would say "Rebirth's" effects team genuinely does deserve the notice here. But maybe I'm dinosaur bias.
One of my favorite movies from last year was "The Ugly Stepsister," an extremely gruesome and beautifully made Norwegian film that put a body horror spin on the old "Cinderella" story. It was announced a while back that the movie was on the Academy shortlist for Best Costumes and Make-Up and Hairstyling, which surprised me. Shudder exclusives do not typically catch the Academy's eyes. Well, the film was passed over for Costumes. Voters had to make room for "Avatar: Fire and Ash" there, raising questions about whether computer generated costumes count. However, "The Ugly Stepsister" did receive a nod in Best Makeup. It's not as funny as some grisly gore-fest getting that Oscar gold but this one is still pretty gross, so I'm satisfied. Makeup was actually kind of an unpredictable lineup this year. "Frankenstein" – probably gonna win – and "Sinners" were safe assumptions but this is the first I've heard of Japanese Kabuki drama "Kokuho." The Rock's stab at being taken seriously as an actor, "The Smashing Machine," failed to get noticed in any other category but this one. Hopefully Dwayne's mountains of money will comfort him.
This year also saw the inclusion of the first new category in something like fifty years. It wasn't the much teased Best Stunts category, which still hasn't quite made the cut. Instead, we know have Best Casting to consider. Does this mean hardworking casting directors for otherwise overlooked motion pictures got nominated? Lol no, the Academy just nominated the same five movies here as they did everywhere else. That's starting to become a real problem around these parts. "Frankenstein" is actually the front runner in several technical categories, like Costumes and Production Design. Makes this old monster kid feel proud. (The movie also earned a Cinematography nod, despite how many people I saw online saying the film looked too dark or flat. Who is more full of shit, Film Twitter agitators or Academy members?) "Avatar," of course, is expected to win Visual Effects. However, that category did contain a few surprises. Remember when Paul Greengrass was still a big deal? He made some disaster movie called "The Lost Bus" this year that completely slipped pass my radar but the Visual Effects arm of the Academy must have been impressed by it. Another surprise was "Jurassic World Rebirth" getting a nomination here. This is somehow the first time any entry into the much loathed "Jurassic World" sub-series has gotten an Oscar nomination. I mean, say what you will about those movies but the digital effects in them are always fantastic. I would say "Rebirth's" effects team genuinely does deserve the notice here. But maybe I'm dinosaur bias.
Realizing that having a host that actually likes movies and enjoys doing bits about them worked out nicely, the Academy has decided to invite Conan O'Brien back to host this year. He was delightful so I'm looking forward to that. I'm also looking forward to a whole month of movie watching now.






































