Is it just me or has this year's Oscar season been the most low-key one? The film industry is in such a weird transition period. The reality of life during an ongoing, unending pandemic means that movie theaters still feel like they are operating at half-the-power they once were. The theatrical world is increasingly dominated by blockbuster spectacle and franchise filmmaking. When paired with every corporation in the world having its own streaming platform it's trying to build up, the kind of mid-budget, human interest-driven dramas that used to be The Academy's bread-and-butter are increasingly becoming streaming exclusives. And because the world of streaming is a deluge of constant new content, it's becoming harder for any one movie to really stick out. I'm not sure if this is necessarily worse than the old tradition of sticking Oscar hopefuls in limited runs in L.A. and New York but it certainly makes the annual round-up of nominees feel like less of an event.
In fact, this year's Oscar season has felt so low key to me that I actually didn't remember the nominations were announced today until last night. For some reason, I thought the nominations were going to be on the 10th! And the list of titles that greeted me this morning was largely made up of things I meant to check out but never had a chance to, streaming exclusives that I vaguely recall hearing some chatter about, and a couple of big releases that managed to break through with the critical hive mind.
And while I could certainly extrapolate on the (mostly depressing) things all of this means for the cinematic world, I don't have time to. Instead, I now have a long list of nominees to watch and review before the ceremony airs on March 27th. And before I can do that, I have to write up my thoughts and opinions (and doubtlessly inaccurate and woefully misinformed predictions) on 2022's round of nominations. So here we go:
BEST PICTURE:
In the year of our lord 2022, it really seems like "Oscar buzz" means something different now. The most talked about movies of this year's award cycle have not been endlessly discussed because they're great filmmaking. It's been because of stupid debates on Twitter and other places about some tangential topic or another. "Don't Look Up," another hyper-smarmy social satire from Adam McKay, is the most divisive nominee of the year. A lot of people whose opinions I respect seem to regard the shaky climate change parable as utterly insufferable. Twitter has been abuzz with whether the film is good, not-so-good but important, or just straight-up bad. It seems this has made "Don't Look Up" the Villain Movie of the year. That kind of divisiveness rarely leads to Best Picture gold but obviously the Academy likes the movie. So who knows.
Somehow, the other nominee that has driven debate around Film Twitter is "Licorice Pizza." You wouldn't expect a coming-of-age story from beloved auteur Paul Thomas Anderson, drawing from his own adolescence, to be controversial... But a vocal group of people on the internet have objected to the movie being about a romance between a twenty-five year old and a teenager. Mostly, it's been morally uptight young people objecting to this. And it's such a stupid controversy to me because the movie really seems to be about the problems inherent in such an age gap. I've mostly been ignoring this very dumb debate and focusing on the reactions from knowledgeable film writers, who all seem to love the movie.
Like I said, those are the two most talked-about nominees but neither seem to be actual frontrunners to win. Instead, that seems to come down to two titles. If you had asked me a few months ago what the likely BP winner would be, I'd go with "Belfast." Kenneth Branagh's own nostalgic autobiographical film has swept up plenty of rave reviews and wins in the last few weeks. It's exactly the sort of stately, artistic — if somewhat dull and safe — type of filmmaking that the Academy loves to award. And it still might be the winner.
Yet Jane Campion's "The Power of the Dog" seems to have the slight edge. A western about malignant masculinity, the film is among 2021's best reviewed titles and seems to have the right balance of prestige and topicality to be rewarded with a Best Picture statue. I may be horribly out-of-the-loop here but this really seems like the only movie this year with solid gold buzz behind it.
The remaining six nominees are a round-up of what can typically be called Oscar Bait and a few surprises. "King Richard," a biopic about a difficult father who just happened to raise two star athletes, is the kind of polished studio filmmaking designed to get its lead actor a statue. "West Side Story" and "Nightmare Alley" are high profile remakes, set in beloved if anachronistic genres, from beloved directors. Both earned largely respectful reviews without really breaking through with audiences or blowing critics away. And, once upon a time, a science fiction epic like "Dune" getting a Best Picture nominee might've seem inconceivable. Yet Denis Villeneuve's ambitious adaptation has been poised as the "Lord of the Rings" for the spaceship set from the beginning, so it's less surprising that it managed to scoop up a ton of nods.
And that leaves us with the surprises. "CODA" is this year's little movie that could, making a big splash at Sundance and being purchased by Apple's streaming service for a ton of money. This seems to stand in contrast to its status as a movie I've heard very few people actually talking about. (Maybe that's because it's on Apple+.) The black horse nominee this year is "Drive My Car," a three hour long Japanese drama that seems to be the fan-favorite among a certain set of in-the-know movie lovers. Some are already wondering if "Drive My Car" would replicate "Parasite's" Best Picture success. Who's to say but I know lots of folks who would be overjoyed by that.
OFFICIAL PREDICTION:
"The Power of the Dog"
BEST ACTOR:
In the last decade, there's been a slow shift of what is considered a slam-dunk Oscar performance. It used to be an actor playing a famous historical figure doing something important — or at least something important to pop culture — seemed like a safe bet for a statue. It still sometimes works and this technique still routinely garners nominations. See nominations this year for Will Smith as "King Richard" or Javier Bardem as Ricky Ricardo in "Being the Ricardos."
Yet this technique is so widely recognized now that a lot of people are skeptical of it. This leaves other types of performances to slip in. Benedict Cumberbatch in "The Power of the Dog" seems to be the one-to-beat this year. It's a respected actor supposedly giving a commanding, compelling performance and everybody loves it. The Academy especially loves it, so Cumberbatch — can I still make fun of his goofy name? — seems to be the favorite.
Though it must be noted that Andrew Garfield in "tick, tick... BOOM!" was called the performance of the year by a lot of people. And you can't underestimate the power of Denzel Washington doing Shakespeare in "The Tragedy of MacBeth." In a year without such a clear favorite, I might have more confidence in giving those two the vote but....
OFFICIAL PREDICTION:
Benedict Cumberbatch in "The Power of the Dog"
BEST ACTRESS:
I'm honestly surprised Kristen Stewart got nominated for "Spencer." That's the kind of smaller movie that is beloved by younger cinephiles but tends to prove more divisive among the older critics. She really seemed like a long shot to me so congrats to the people invested in K-Stew's career.
And some performers have really established themselves as favorites of the Academy. "The Lost Daughter" is Olivia Colman's second nomination since her surprise win for "The Favourite" and it's clear that the AMPAS really love her. Penelope Cruz is similarly a favorite of the Academy, with her nod for "Parallel Mothers" being her fourth overall nomination in the last fifteen years. Both actresses got nods this year for movies that seem to have medium, at best, buzz.
And then there are the typical Oscar Bait performances. Many seem to agree Nicole Kidman was miscast as Lucille Ball in "Being the Ricardo's" and the movie received mixed notices in general. But the Academy just can't resist an A-list actress playing a Hollywood legend, so she got nominated. The Academy also can't resist a famous beauty "uglying it up" by being covered in make-up to play a notorious person. Even though "The Eyes of Tammy Faye" came and went without much notice, that move was still enough to win Jessica Chastain a nod.
In this mix, there really isn't a clear favorite. It seems to be coming down to the edgy younger performer — Stewart — and the safe and easy pick — Kidman — and I genuinely don't know which one will get it.
OFFICIAL PREDICTION:
Leaning towards Kristen Stewart for "Spencer" but I'm probably wrong.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
I really can't underplay how much the Academy loved "The Power of the Dog." They loved the film so much that they filled two slots in the Best Supporting Actor category with it. Kodi Smit-McPhee seems to be the front runner in this category, having won at SAG and the BAFTAs, but the AMPAS liked Jesse Plemmons' performance in the same movie enough to pick him a nomination as well.
Plemmons' nomination proves that the Supporting category is really ruled by beloved character actors. J.K. Simmons and Ciaran Hinds both fall into that category. Both scored nominations for their roles in "Belfast" and "Being the Ricardos." Hinds was a real contender earlier in the year and might still sneak in a win too.
Yet there is always the possibility of an unknown coming out on top. You can debate the ethics of this, if it's tokenism or not, but voting bodies like the Academy love an underdog story. The idea of someone with a disability rising to the highest level of success in his field. Which is the story of Troy Kotsur in "CODA." In addition to this factor, Kotsur's performance seems to be the best thing about the movie. I think this category is a close race between him and McPhee.
OFFICIAL PREDICTION:
Kodi Smit-McPhee for "The Power of the Dog"
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Jessie Buckley, Aunjanue Ellis, and Ariana DeBose aren't unknowns exactly. But none of them are big stars either. I'll be totally honest: I had never heard of Ellis or DeBose before today. That's because both have risen up to this level of fame through two formats I don't really pay attention to: Stage and television. DeBose, nominated for "West Side Story," is beloved because of her work in "Hamilton." Ellis owes much of her recent recognition to "Lovecraft Country," though she's been in plenty of other things. I only know Buckley — nominates here for "The Lost Daughter" — from "I'm Thinking of Ending Things," though she's also best known for TV.
This just proves that I'm really not plugged into the cultural zeitgeist. I should know who all three of these people are. (Especially since DeBose seems to be the favorite to win.) I am deeply ashamed and will try to do better in the future.
Anyway, I have heard of the last two nominees. Kristen Dunst's nomination for "The Power of the Dog" seems to be a side effect of that movie being so beloved by the Academy, even if it's clearly a key performance in the film. You could almost say the same thing for Judi Dench in "Belfast," except Judi Dench is Judi Dench. Beloved icon of the stage and screen, I'm not really surprised Dench managed to score a place in this category. She could probably get a Nomination for reading from the phone book.
OFFICIAL PREDICTION:
I have no idea but people who know better than me seem to be betting on Ariana DeBoss in "West Side Story."
BEST DIRECTOR:
When is Paul Thomas Anderson going to win an Oscar? He's one of the most beloved and respected directors of his generation. "There Will Be Blood" is one of the undisputed masterpieces of the 21st century, with "Boogie Nights" and "Magnolia" also being highly regarded. And yet the Academy has repeatedly passed him over. Anderson has been nominated six times across multiple categories. He's nominated for Best Director again this year for "Licorice Pizza" but it seems really unlikely that he's going to win. They're going to continuously snub him and then give him an honorary award when he's close to death, aren't they?
Anderson is nominated alongside Kenneth Branagh, who has also been nominated multiple times without winning. Branagh is not quite the universally beloved figure P.T. is. The last decade spent mostly directing big budget franchise films have definitely taken the sparkle off his Oscar chances some. Yet if "Belfast" ends up being a bigger deal next month than I anticipated, it's totally possible ol' Ken could win. He would, by far, be the safest choice this year.
I mean, he's the safest choice next to Steven Spielberg. Pretty much all of Uncle Steve's "important" movies get Oscar attention and it's not uncommon for him to score a nomination as well. Remaking "West Side Story" was supposedly a dream project for him. Once upon a time, it probably would've been a clear winner too. Yet this year Steve getting nominated at all was a bit of a surprise, so I don't think he'll add to his cache of gold statue in 2022.
This leaves us with two other choices: The front runner and the dark horse. Jane Campion got a nomination a long time back for "The Piano," a film that has only grown more beloved with time. In fact, Campion's entire career has garnered more esteem in recent years, with even her flops being reevaluated recently. And it seems to me that the Academy has really decided lately to make up for lost time and reward women filmmakers. "The Power of the Dog" is the front runner across multiple categories, so this is clearly Campion's year. The only choice that would be more delightful is Ryûsuke Hamaguchi for “Drive My Car,” if only because nobody really expected him to make it this far.
OFFICIAL PREDICTION:
Jane Campion for “The Power of the Dog”
BEST WRITING:
This is the category, I think, I'm the worst at predicting. Over the years, it's become entirely evident to me that the Academy values totally different things in the screenwriting department than I do. Am I surprised the hyper-verbal, self-aware, self-congratulatory prose of “Don't Look Up” earned an Original Screenplay nomination? Not at all. Do I think more character-driven intimate films like “Licorice Pizza” or “The Worst Person in the World” probably deserve to win more than anything else? Yep. Am I a little confused why films driven by visuals and performances like “Belfast” and “King Richard” managed to score nominations at all? Well, I'm confused by a lot of things.
Part of why the Screenplay adaptations always throw me is that it seems that Academy members consider writing and storytelling the exact same thing. Because the nominees in these categories are almost always made up of Best Picture nominees, as if people just liked a movie and voted for it across every category. So the Best Adapted category is filled with “The Power of the Dog,” “CODA,” “Dune,” and “Drive My Car,” with “The Lost Daughter” being the sole outlier. Of these, the only one I've seen of this writing is “Dune” and, yeah, okay, I'll admit that film managed to shear Frank Herbert's impenetrable prose down into something cinematic. But it's hard to judge otherwise.
OFFICIAL PREDICTIONS:
Since "The Power of the Dog" and "Belfast" seems to be the frontrunner in most categories, it feels safe to vote for them here.
BEST MUSIC:
It's been customary for many years for Disney's animated musicals to earn a nomination for one of their songs. Yet due to the convoluted ways the nominees are decided, break-out pop hit “We Don't Talk About Bruno” was passed over in favor of soft guitar-driven ballad “Dos Oruguitas.” “Passed over' isn't even the right phrase for it, as Disney intentionally selected this song as the nominee. And I like this song, don't get me wrong. It's really pretty and nicely sums up the film's themes. But in a movie so full of show-stoppers, it's strange that one of the quieter numbers would be selected. I guess Disney is hoping for a repeat of “Remember Me's” success.
If “Let It Go” set a precedence for Disney hits to take home Oscar gold, “Skyfall” did the same for Bond themes. These two trends are going head-to-head this year, as Billie Eilish's theme for “No Time to Die” is also nominated. It took me a couple of listens to warm up to this song but now I'm definitely a fan. I like the way it builds, the traditional Bond theme sounds appearing more as it goes on, and Eilish's smoky vocals remain perfect for this particular style.
Of course, the competing heat of these two songs could cancel each other out. If that's the case, I imagine the Academy would seize on the chance to finally give Beyoncé an Oscar. Now, Beyoncé doesn't really work in my genre so I'm probably not the best judge. But I think “Be Alive” from “King Richard” doesn't represent her best work. Its trudging beat is hard to get into and it sounds like she's really overworking her vocals to invest emotion into some frankly mediocre lyrics. But, I don't know, maybe other people like it.
Meanwhile, over in “Belfast,” rhythmic mumbler/anti-vaxx loon Van Morrison contributes “Down to Joy.” If released back in his “Astral Weeks” heyday, this would surely count among Van's more mediocre efforts. But by the standards of modern day Van Morrison, it's not too bed. It's peppy. I don't think it has a chance in Hell of winning but it's fun to imagine what Van's rambling acceptance speech would be like if it did.
Which brings us to the required Diane Warren penned nominee. “Somehow You Do,” from some movie I've never heard of called “Four Good Days," is the songwriter's thirteenth nomination. It's pretty much a running joke at this point that Warren gets another nomination for another maudlin ballad, without ever having a chance at actually winning. “Somehow You Do” is this year's edition, with all the over-the-top bombast you've come to expect. I like Reba McEntire's voice as much as anyone else but this is just about the most generic and drippy of inspirational ballads that I've heard recently.
The scoring side of things is an equally mixed bag. Say what you will — and I'm sure I will — about “Don't Look Up” but it's jazzy score is pretty decent. There's a nice undercurrent of dread to the otherwise upbeat melodies. Germaine Franco's music for “Encanto” also continues the energetic vibe, beautifully mixing traditional South American sounds in with what you expect from an orchestral score. Of the nominated scores, it's the one that probably is most easily listened to outside of the movie. Some of Franco's work here is just really good flamenco influenced dance music.
Alberto Iglesias' music for “Parallel Mothers" also isn't bad, with enough distortion and sinister undertones beneath the plucking strings, nervous melodies, and piano segments that vary between discordant and tuneful. Jonny Greenwood's music for “The Power of the Dog” tries something similar, though with more wild west flavor in the form of anxious guitars and fiddles. Which creates more of a mournful feeling from time to time.
I generally find Hans Zimmer's scores to be pretty boring, so I'm not surprised that I'm underwhelmed by his work on “Dune.” I'll admit, his use of different instruments and styles throughout the soundtrack – from bagpipes to throat singing – is so clever. But a lot of this score is composed of rambling ambiance that doesn't really do it for me. Ya know, the David Lynch version is flawed as fuck but at least he understood that “Dune” really needs a prog rock soundtrack.
OTHER FILM CATEGORIES:
I'm used to Disney and Pixar dominating the Animated Feature category but the company taking up three of the nominations this year seems to be a bit much. That only left room for one other film from a rival major studio – Sony Animation's “The Mitchells vs the Machines,” which I enjoyed – with the sole indie animation nod going to topical documentary fusion “Flee.” I fully expect widely popular “Encanto” to take it, I'm personally rooting for “Luca,” but “Raya and the Last Dragon” really could've been swiped out with any number of more deserving titles.
“Flee” continues the trend of a Documentary breaking out into other categories in recent years. It managed to pull of a hat trick of being nominated in Docs, Animated Feature, and International Feature. Documentary seems like the category it is mostly to win in, especially since “Drive My Car” seems to be the favorite to win in International Feature. (Though the critically acclaimed “The Worst Person in the World” may give it some stiff competition.) Though “Summer of Soul” is also a top contender in Documentary, so I guess we'll see. As always, those two categories are filled with films I mostly haven't heard of, so I'm intrigued to get to those.
MISC.:
Ridley Scott's “House of Gucci” was widely presumed to be an Oscar favorite this year, being a flashy biopic from a big director and with a widely lauded A-list cast. Instead, the film managed to score only a single nomination. That would be in the Make-up category, presumably to honor the decision to turn Jared Leto into a sweaty, bald guy instead of just casting an actual sweaty, bald guy. (This is still better than Scott's other movie last year, “The Last Duel,” which I figured would've wormed into Costume Design or something.) The similar physical transformation in “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” also received a nod. The rest of the Make-Up category is as depressing as it always is, with “Dune” being the sole cool genre credit honored and random movies like “Coming 2 America” and “Cruella” filling out the rest of the category.
Disney's mediocre dog movie also scored a nomination in Costume Design, which seemed like the category it was really gunning for. “Cyrano,” in its sole nomination, is also the sole costume drama in a category usually dominated by such things. Instead, the sci-fi costumes of “Dune” and period clothing of the more recent past in “West Side Story” and “Nightmare Alley” occupy the rest of that category.
The latter three films also took up slots in Cinematography and Production design. (Of which “The French Dispatch” was totally left out of, one of the few snubs to genuinely annoy me.) I'm really surprised the black-and-white cinematography of “Belfast” didn't earn a nomination, with the Academy instead nodding at another monochromic film with “The Tragedy of MacBeth.”
Also, I was hoping “Godzilla Vs. Kong” would pull off a Visual Effects nomination, just so we could say that it was an Oscar nominated film. Instead, the Academy deemed “Free Guy – whose achievements include the creation of this monstrosity – worthy of a nomination.
After several blissful years free of hacky schtick and time-filling bullshit, the Academy is threatening to hire someone to host this year's ceremony. I'm sure that's a result of last year's ceremony being an absolute fucking dumpster fire. While that's true, I don't think the lack of a host was the cause. Regardless of what shape or form it may take, I will be glued to my television on March 27th as things unfold. Until then, I will be trying to cram in reviews of as many of the nominees as I can. This is always a fun journey so let's get to it.
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