America is plunging towards a new era of dumbness and bigotry the likes of which haven't been seen in decades, while simultaneously being on fire and buried in snow. You can't help but feel a little apocalyptic in conditions such as these, meaning I'm in need of a good distraction. Oh yes, it's Oscar season again. Time to buckle down and spend the next six weeks or so stuffing my face with Hollywood's most prestigious offerings from the last year.
By the time the nominations are actually announced – delayed twice this year on-account of the aforementioned apocalypse – we usually have a solid idea of what the line-up will look like. There weren't too many surprises this year, most of the expected names being called out. Mostly, I'm just happy that the horror genre is a little better represented than usual this year. Let's not get too far ahead of ourselves here. Time for me to throw around my yearly practice of wildly inaccurate predictions!
BEST PICTURE:
When "The Substance" first started to gain some buzz on the festival circuit, it was the standard kind of appraisal that an cool new indie genre film gets. This was, after all, the next feature from the director of "Revenge," a Shudder release, that was packed with latex mutations, twisted flesh, and geysers of blood. You wouldn't expect Frank Henenlotter and "Body Melt" to be influences on an Oscar nominated film. However, we live in strange times and "The Substance" has become an award-season darling. It is nominated in four categories, including Best Picture. Perhaps we shouldn't be surprised, as there's nothing the Academy loves more than stories about their own industry.
A few years back, Sean Baker's "The Florida Project" was a beloved indie that only managed to snag a single nomination from the Academy. I supposed taste has changed since then, what with indie distributors like A24 becoming Hollywood powerhouses. Baker's latest film, "Anora," scored six nods in high profile categories, despite being a hotly contested motion picture in the Film Twitter sphere.
Not that Love It or Hate It situations are too uncommon with the Oscar nominees. In fact, this year's Villain Movie – the pick despised by movie snobs but inexplicably adored by award bodies – has the most nominations of the entire slate. That would be "Emelia Perez," Netflix's international musical about a transgender drug boss. It has been derided by actual queer people as diminishing at best and fully transphobic at worst. Moreover, a lot of people think the movie is simply bad, with at least one clip going viral for how tone-deaf it is. I guess the Academy didn't get the memo and gave it 13 nominations.
It's far from the only divisive film in this year's Best Picture slate. In fact, most of the nominees are rather contested this year. The long awaited film adaptation of "Wicked" has been praised by some but dismissed by far many more as the exact kind of slop the tastemakers should be hissing at. Also because it looks like absolute ass. The Academy nominated it in ten categories. "The Brutalist," a three and a half hour long historical drama about architecture and the Holocaust, seems right up the Academy's alley but has recently come under fire for its apparent use of AI. It is still a favorite to win a few categories and seems to have a decent shot at Best Picture.
The thoroughly uncontroversial Best Picture nominees are the most and least expected one. "Conclave," a stately drama with mystery elements about the Catholic church, seems like the most traditional pick for Best Picture. It's still the consensus pick to win but there's a surprising lack of heat behind it. (In so much as eight nominees can classify as heatless.) The Academy also liked "A Complete Unknown," the Bob Dylan biopic, a lot more than expected. I guess voters simply cannot quit the musician biography genre. "Dune: Part Two" is the expected example of the Academy throwing a bone to the public by nominating a grand epic that people actually saw in theaters, Frank Herbert's sand-strewn sci-fi epic having long since passed into the canon of respectable literature.
That leaves "Nickel Boys," a well liked little drama that barely squeaked into the top ten and... "I'm Still Here?" The 2010 mockumentary about Joaquin Phoenix pursuing a rap career? No, no, this "I'm Still Here" is a Brazilian biopic about Eunice Paiva, a lawyer and activist who campaigned against the country's military dictatorship in the seventies. The film was expected to pick up a nom in Best International Picture but it breaching the subtitle barrier and warning a Best Picture nominee is a major surprise.
OFFICIAL PREDICTION:
In the darkest timeline, "Emilia Perez" wins and, since we are clearly in that timeline, it'll probably happen. However, I'll hedge my bets and say "Conclave" is still the "safest" choice for Best Picture. "The Brutalist" is the dark horse pick.
BEST ACTOR:
Late last year, there was a minor controversy that "The Appreciate," a highly critical motion picture about the failed casino owner currently residing in the highest political office in the land, was being intentionally ignored by award bodies. Since Trump's second win, there's been this sickening slide in the culture towards appeasing our flagrantly evil right-wing overlords. Either that stink caught the voters' attention or was too minor for the Academy to notice. Sebastian Stan, whose game as a dramatic actor is starting to outweigh his fame as a member of the Marvel Universe, did indeed score a nomination for playing future president Trump in "The Apprentice." What this says about anything, the film industry or politics or the frightening vibe shift we're undergoing, I surely cannot tell you.
I can't imagine a film about such a hotly debated figure earning its star an Oscar though. The rest of the category is made up of easier choices. "Sing Sing" is an indie fave that missed out on a Best Picture nod but Colman Domingo did grab a Best Actor nomination, cementing his status as one of our great actors in the current era. Ralph Fiennes is an old favorite, a beloved character actor earning his third nomination for "Conclave." Timothee Chalamet playing Bob Dylan is such an easy lay-up for an Oscar nomination, that it's hard to imagine him not winning. However, current odds seem to favor Adrien Brody in "The Brutalist." I sort of hope Brody wins just so we can be treated to a repeat of what happened last time he won an Oscar: Kissing the presenter so hard that he's forced to do schlock for a decade before slowly winning his respectability back. Maybe Emma Stone should wear a face shield...
OFFICIAL PREDICTION:
If "The Brutalist" becomes the unstoppable juggernaut most everyone thinks it will, Adrien Brody will win. If its heat slips any in the next month, Timothee Chalamet gets it.
BEST ACTRESS:
If Chalamet as Dylan was a sure shot in the Best Actor category, then the similar "well duh" pick in Best Actress is probably Cynthia Ervio in "Wicked." Erivo has the kind of talent that demands attention and she's certainly made no secret that she believes this too. Plus it's a star turn in a beloved musical. Normally, she'd be a slam dunk.
Not this year though and you can probably blame that in the critical divide over "Wicked" in general. Instead, Best Actress is an eclectic blend this year. Fernanda Torres is critically beloved but far from a household name, making her nomination for "I'm Still Here" a bit of a surprise. Mikey Madison as "Anora" was seen as a long shot a few months back but the film has become an undeniable critical darling. The Academy Awards are all about Hollywood patting itself on the back and breaking ground by making Karla Sofía Gascón the first transwoman to win an Oscar would seem to be a hard option to pass up, despite it being for a movie that most trans people seem to dislike.
However, there's little the Academy loves more than a come back kid. Demi Moore was a divisive figure during her brief superstar reign in the nineties, having long since fallen off the A-list... "The Substance" has changed all that though. It's also the kind of high-impact melodrama that seems to appeal to Academy voters. It's easy to imagine everyone in the Best Actress voting pool having a lot of appreciation for Moore's turn as an aging actress who goes to desperate measures to regain her fame. Moore is quickly becoming a lock in this category.
OFFICIAL PREDICTION:
Demi Moore in "The Substance."
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
I remember seeing "Igby Goes Down" as a teenager and thinking that this Kiernan Culkin kid was going to be a big star some day. That's hardly been the case, Culkin instead carving out a nice niche for himself as a character actor. However, for his part in Jesse Eisenberg's directorial debut, "A Real Pain," he seems to have a very good shot at winning an Oscar.
Culkin is such a fave that most odds put him far above the competition. Guy Pearce is somehow earning his first Oscar nomination for "The Brutalist" and it sure would be neat if he finally got some Academy recognition for a lifetime of swell work. Yura Borisov and Jeremy Strong, in "Anora" and "The Appreciate," seemed likely choices to be nominated but not to win. Meanwhile, Edward Norton as Pete Seeger in "A Complete Unknown" definitely feels like one of those nominees picked to round out the category. Then again, Norton should have won an Oscar ages ago so maybe the Academy's tendency to give rewards out more as Life Time Achievement Awards than anything else will happen here. Either way, my pick is still...
OFFICIAL PREDICTION:
Kiernan Culkin for "A Real Pain."
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
While "Emelia Perez" remains a contested film in many regards, even those that dislike the movie seem to agree that Zoë Saldana is excellent in it. Much like Culkin in the other supporting category, she seems to have a considerable lead over her competition.
I would love it though if Isabella Rossellini won though. Come on, who doesn't love Isabella Rossellini? She's so cool! Have you seen "Green Porno?" It rocks! How has she never been nominated before? If she does win and dedicates her award to David Lynch, I'm going to cry.
Felicity Jones is supposedly excellent in "The Brutalist" and she is likely the runner-up in this category, assuming anybody in the Academy actually finished watching the movie. I haven't heard a single person actually admit that Ariana Grande is good in "Wicked" but she sneaked into this category on inertia. The same is definitely true of Monica Barbaro in "A Complete Unknown," who wasn't on too many people's radar before this morning. Like I said, the Academy must've really liked that movie.
OFFICIAL PREDICTION:
Zoë Saldana for "Emelia Perez."
BEST DIRECTOR:
Out of the ninety-six previous Academy Awards, seventy of them have seen Best Director and Best Picture going to the same movie. This is why I think "Conclave's" Best Picture odds are not as secure as many are saying. Its director, Edward Berger, was passed by for a nomination. The spot that was probably meant to be his instead went to James Mangold for "A Complete Unknown," as further evidence of the Academy digging that one more than anticipated.
This means whoever wins Best Director seems to depend largely on which way the wind ends up blowing. If "The Brutalist" becomes the evening's favorite, Brady Corbet wins Best Director. He is, by far, the most respectable choice. If the Academy inexplicably ends up adoring "Emelia Perez," Jacques Audiard gets it.
There's a chance that Coralie Fargeat – again, primarily a horror filmmaker – might win for "The Substance." That would be kind of cool. I do think Sean Baker will get a Best Director Oscar some day but I don't think it'll be for "Anora," likely to lose in this category to flashier fair.
OFFICIAL PREDICTION:
Brady Corbet for "The Brutalist," I hope.
BEST WRITING:
Sean Baker's odds of winning Best Director are low precisely because "Anora" is the kind of scrappy picture that usually wins Best Original Screenplay instead. It's currently the fave in that category. My gut tells me "The Substance" might pull off an upset and "The Brutalist" might sweep through this category as well. "A Real Pain" getting nominated in this category was a real surprise. "September 5" was an award season favorite for many but the Academy only gave it a nod in this category.
As for Best Adapted Screenplay, it's in a similar split as Best Picture. Will "Emelia Perez" continue to be beloved by voters and pick up a statue here? Will "Conclave" lose out on Best Picture but snatch this award? Are "Sing Sing" and "Nickel Boys" the kind of sensitive indie flicks that the writing branch tends to favor? What was so fucking impressive about "A Complete Unknown's" screenplay exactly? All questions we will probably never get answers too.
OFFICIAL PREDICTION:
"Anora" and "Emelia Perez." (Rooting for "The Substance" though.)
BEST MUSIC:
In a year in which two musicals dominate the majority of categories, you would think the Best Song slate would be stronger than it is. The line-up is so mediocre this year that Diane Warren, on her sixteenth nomination without a win, might actually win this year. She wrote a sappy ballad for Tyler Perry's Netflix thing, “The Six Triple Eight.” “The Journey” is a perfectly serviceable little inspirational ballad, the exact type of thing Warren specializes in. I think the song leans too much on repeating the chorus and H.E.R.'s vocals strike me as a bit overwrought. However, if this is the song that finally ends the running joke of the Academy nominating Warren every year for some damn reason, I'm fine with that.
Someone else the Academy is clearly a big fan of is Elton John. They made a documentary about his farewell tour this year called “Elton John: Never Too Late.” The seventies ivory tickler and his BFF Bernie Taupin naturally wrote an original song for it, a duet with Brandi Carlile. I actually think Carlile's contribution to the song features some nice melodies but the song definitely doesn't represent Sir Elton's best work. Not even as good as “I'm Gonna Love Me Again,” the “Rocketman” winner from a few years back. Pretty but hardly a classic.
Probably my favorite of the Best Song nominees is “Like a Bird,” from “Sing Sing.” The guitar melody that opens and closes the song is pretty and the chorus is catchy. Adrian Quesada's vocals convey a lot of emotion without overdoing it. There's a funky guitar solo in the middle too, which I appreciate.
The rest of the Best Songs nominees are from “Emilia Perez.” A movie getting multiple nominations in the Best Song category tends to split the vote and weaken its strength overall “Mi Camino,” Selena Gomez' big number from that movie, still feels like the likeliest number to win. I wouldn't go so far as to call myself a Selena Gomez fan but I do think she has a nice voice and it gets a decent representation here. I actually don't mind the pop/disco dance beat on the number's latter half either. It's more radio friendly than “El Mal,” the other song from “Emilia Perez.” I admittedly don't speak Spanish but I do find Zoe Saldana's rap-singing mildly silly sounding.
As for the Best Original Scores... The music for “The Brualist” is from artsy indie rocker, Daniel Blumberg. The soundtrack features three separate overtures, which should give you a good idea of what you're getting into. It's a long score for a long movie and I've listened to the whole thing twice, in hopes of understanding its appeal. Might have to conclude that this is one of those things simply Not For Me. Blumberg's music is certainly bold – it ends with a synthwave dance number – but I'm not sure his mixture of jazzy abstraction, piano tinkling minimalism, long pauses, discordant noises, and bigger orchestral movements are necessarily to my taste. The tracks “Pennsylvania” and “Steel” are probably my favorites.
Volker Bertelmann's percussion heavy score for “All Quiet on the Western Front” became a running joke two years ago during the ceremony, as the show organizers played snippets from it every time the movie won something. Unsurprisingly, the same director/composer duo produced similar results with the soundtrack to “Conclave.” I liked Bertelmann's previous score and I like this one too, which is moody with a strong propulsive energy throughout.
Kris Bowers' score for “The Wild Robot” is probably exactly what you imagine in your head when you hear what the film is: A nature-focused and only slightly quirky sci-fi fable for Tumblr Adults. I feel like this is something I'd hear in the background of a Barnes & Noble. A perfectly cromulent soundtrack for a movie I'd rate at about the same level.
The actual, orchestral score for “Emilia Perez” getting nominated feels unearned. The songs are the stars of that movie while the music itself... It's not bad! I just don't know if it truly deserved a nomination over a few other scores I could highlight. The other big musical of the year, “Wicked,” earned a nomination too. It's odd to me that the Academy disqualified a few sequels for reusing melodies but this score – which obviously features riffs on songs from the Broadway music – was allowed to compete. Stephen Schwartz and John Powell's score is very pastoral and sweeping. Reminds me of a nineties Disney movie, which was surely the intentional. Again, not bad but I wouldn't have nominated it.
OTHER FILM CATEGORIES:
One of my top picks from last year was "Flow," a dialogue free animated feature from Latvia, made by a small crew with low budget resources. I figured all those factors made it a long shot at the Oscars but, delightfully, "Flow" has become an award season favorite. It got nominated for both Animated Feature and International Feature. The Academy voters notoriously have a stick up their collective asses about animation, so I wouldn't be surprised if they shrug and end up awarding "Inside Out 2" but the odds seem to favor "Flow" at the moment. At least the Academy ignored the incredibly mediocre "Moana 2," instead filling the category with the latest "Wallace and Gromit" adventure, stop-motion dramedy "Memoir of a Snail," and "The Wild Robot." I didn't like the latter two as much as many did but this is still a pretty solid lineup.
Aside from the post-apocalyptic CGI cat movie, most of the International Feature nominees were expected. I've heard non-stop raves about "The Girl with the Needle" and "The Seed of the Sacred Fig," so anticipated nods for that. Considering how much the Academy liked "I'm Still Here" and "Emelia Perez," I'm not surprised they placed either. I fully expect the latter to win in this category, which will hopefully be enough to keep it away from Best Picture.
As I always do, I have a lot of catching up to do with the shorts and documentary nomination. I haven't seen "Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat" but I like its title.
MISCELLANEOUS:
I said above that horror – usually the genre the Academy dismisses the most – had an unusually strong showing this year. Aside from "The Substance" earning some high-profile nominations, Robert Eggers' "Nosferatu" picked up nods for Make-Up, Costumes, Cinematography, and Production Design. I suspected the first two would probably happen but the other two are a surprise. I still think "The Substance's" blood-gushing, pulsating body horror will win Make-Up but it just makes me happy to see genre cinema dominating this category. The other picks were for absurdist sci-fi comedy "A Different Man" – if Sebastian Stan wins Best Actor, I'm going to pretend it's for this movie instead – and "Wicked," which does qualify as a fantasy film. "Emelia Perez" is the only "boring" movie in that category this year. They couldn't have given that last slot to "Beetlejuice Beetlejuice?" Makes this Fangoria reader's heart happy to see it.
I do expect "Wicked" to win in most of the technical categories, Best Production Design and Best Costumes seeming like sure bets. Best Visual Effects is unusually chimpanzee heavy this year, with both "Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes" and "Better Man" securing nominations. The former seems like the obvious winner to me but the Academy will probably favor the epic scope of "Dune: Part Two." Oh yeah, "Alien: Romulus" also picked up a Visual Effects nomination, another win for the horror crowd even if I was largely disappointed in that sequel.
Also, did you know the cinematographer of "The Brutalist" has the first name of LOL? I doubt anybody else finds that as funny as me. Also also, I usually think the Editing category is phoned in every year but they really weren't trying this year. All the more baffling when the kinetic visuals of "The Substance" were right there, man.
Conan O'Brien is the host for this year's Oscar ceremonies, which is the first time in years I've actually been excited to see how the ceremony might go, rather than dreading it. All of this is assuming that L.A. doesn't totally burn to the ground by March 2nd, which sounds like a sick joke but is actually a totally warranted fear at the moment. No matter when or where it happens, I will be live-blogging the broadcast for an eager audience of nobody, because that's just how I do it. I'm glad Hulu is simulcasting the show this year cause I cut cable finally. And now, the quest to hunt down, watch, and review all the nominees I haven't seen begins!
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