January is a miserable fucking month. It's painfully cold outside. We've had a shit load of snow this year. Moreover, I just always feel so directionless at the start of the year. It's hard to motivate yourself when everything that gets you excited feels months away.
Ah, but there is a guiding light in these frozen days. It's Oscars Death Race season, baby! Yes, it is that time of year when I try to watch and review all of the films nominated for the Academy Awards before the ceremony airs. Over the last four years, I've managed to watch everything the Academy recognized. Last year, I wrote full length reviews of 45 of the 54 nominees, a personal best for me. Where will I land this year? I won't know for sure until I'm facing down March 10th.
Before I really get into the weeds though, it is tradition for me to throw out my predictions for who will win the best awards. As usual, most of these guesses are based on gut-feelings and buzz, as I've only seen a handful of the nominees as of this writing. I'm usually wrong about a bunch of these, largely because hype and excitement can shift wildly over the next two months. Yet it's all part of the fun. So let's get started with...
BEST PICTURE:
2023's film landscape was dominated by one phrase: Barbenheimer! Yes, the meme that became a cultural phenomenon was unavoidable all throughout last year. Amazingly, the idea of seeing a somber biopic about the atomic bomb back-to-back with a hot pink blockbuster based on a toy for little girls actually caught on beyond goofballs on TikTok and the bickering nerds of Film Twitter. "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer" both became enormous hits, audiences turning out for two opposing movies releasing on the same weekend.
And now this race between Christopher Nolan's grim meditation on nuclear war and Greta Gerwig's bubblegum, feminist pop odyssey has gone all the way to the Oscars. Yes, both films are nominated in the top category of the year. While "Oppenheimer" is the current favorite to win, the fact that "Barbie," ostensibly a children's movie based on a doll synonymous with plastic brainlessness, got a Best Picture nomination would've been unprecedented back when the movie was announced years back.
I expect these two films will continue to be what people mostly talk about this year but, of course, eight other movies are nominated for Best Picture. Martin Scorsese's late career renaissance continues with "Killers of the Flower Moon," the kind of serious and politically relevant film that would've been a lock for Best Picture in a year without a buzz-generating double feature. Similarly, a cultural satire like "American Fiction" is the sort of insightful filmmaking, about race and society, that would reflect nicely on the Academy and the American film industry if it won Best Picture. Again, it won't but, as they say, it's an honor to be nominated.
Then again, the Academy's taste can be hard to predict. "The Holdovers" is from critically acclaimed director Alexander Payne, true, and was beloved by the press. Yet, in another year, it wouldn't have been unusual for a smaller scale movie like that to be overlooked. From everything I've read about it, "Poor Things" is an aggressively weird experiment from art house oddball Yorgos Lanthimos, inspired by one of the most frequently adapted horror novels. Yet the Academy loved it, giving the film eleven nominees, including a plum spot in Best Picture. I guess the voters have really warmed up to Lanthimos' particular tone after the success of "The Favourite."
In the days before the Best Picture field was expanded, it's easy to imagine all of the above getting nominated. With a wider category now, a few smaller films also sneaked in. Indie fave "Past Lives" didn't get too much attention but the voters liked it enough for it to slip into Best Picture. "Anatomy of a Fall" seems to be the foreign language darling this year, breaking out of the International Film bubble to garner several high-profile nods. Jonathan Glazer's "The Zone of Interest" has been widely acclaimed but it was a question if its chilly, confrontational tone would hold Academy voters' attention. Ultimately, it defied expectations and did score a nomination in Best Picture.
This leaves the most Oscar bait-y of this year's Oscar bait. Bradley Cooper's "Maestro" seems to be the designated "villain movie" of this year's awards season. In-between Cooper's solipsistic campaign for himself and the mixed reception of the movie itself, "Maestro" was the movie serious cinephiles were worried would squeeze out more worthy works. Well, a "Maestro" sweep seems unlikely but the Leonard Bernstein biopic did grab seven nominations, including Best Picture.
OFFICIAL PREDICTION:
"Oppenheimer"
BEST ACTOR:
Bradley Cooper has basically followed every step in the guide book to win himself an Oscar for "Maestro." That includes an extensive physical transformation to pay a real life person and bragging about all the training he underwent for the role. I'll admit, to see such a calculated and – let's face it, kind of sweaty – campaign mostly been unsuccessful has been satisfying. Cooper got his Best Actor nomination and, I don't know, I guess he still has a chance at winning.
But it seems likely that he'll be defeated once again. Mostly because two performances have been dominating the conversation. Cillian Murphy's turn as J. Robert Oppenheimer is a strong contender for performance of the year. It's certainly the strongest work Murphy has ever done in his storied career. Yet a real black horse candidate has emerged. Paul Giamatti in "The Holdovers" has picked up several notable wins along the journey to the Academy Awards. Giamatti is a beloved performer, a delightful presence in anything. A real narrative has emerged of "Wow, it sure would be cool if Paul Giamatti won an Oscar." Will that hold true to March 10th? I'm rooting for him, at the very least.
Rounding out the category is Jeffrey Wright in "American Fiction" and Colman Domingo for "Rustin." The former was long predicted and it's certainly great to see a reliable performer like Wright get an Oscar nod. The latter seems to be a case of "The movie isn't much to write about but we sure do like this guy," as the civil rights biopic was otherwise overlooked.
OFFICIAL PREDICTION:
I have a very strong vision in my third eye of Giamatti winning this but it seems to me that Cillian Murphy in "Oppenheimer" is still the safe bet right now.
BEST ACTRESS:
Most of the conversation around Best Actress this morning has had less to do with who got nominated and more to do with an omission. "Barbie" was one of the big success stories of the year so the doll herself, Margot Robbie, getting left out is surprising. I guess it's still hard for performances in comedies to connect with Academy voters, even when it's the most talked about movie of the year. It seems to me that Robbie's spot was stolen by Annette Benning in "Nyad," a more typical example of Oscar baiting material.
Otherwise, almost every Best Actress award this past year has gone to one of two performances. The Academy clearly adores Emma Stone, with her part in "Poor Things" being her fourth Oscar nomination in the last decade. She's scooped up a few wins but Lily Gladstone in "Killers of the Flower Moon" has been almost unstoppable. Look at this list of wins she's got. It seems probable that she'll add an Oscar to that list real soon.
In a year when two standout roles overshadow everything else, the rest of the nominees are easy to overlook. Carey Mulligan generally is accepted to be the best thing in "Maestro." I have no doubt she'll get a gold statue some day but not this year. Meanwhile, Sandra Huller in "Anatomy of a Fall" was probably always a lock for a nom but a win was never very likely.
OFFICIAL PREDICTION:
Lily Gladstone for "Killers of the Flower Moon."
SUPPORTING ACTOR:
How does one define a "supporting" role? Is every role aside from the lead considered supporting or do some films split equal time between different protagonists? I probably would've nominated Ryan Gosling in "Barbie" for Leading, since he shared equal billing with Margot Robbie, but the studio probably figured he had better Oscar odds in the Supporting Actor category. Gosling stole the show in that film and there's probably some version of events out there where he wins...
Yet Robert Downey Jr. seems the most likely winner here. After working his way back to superstar status from a troubled past, Downey winning an Oscar would be the proper climax to his story. It doesn't hurt that his performance in "Oppenheimer" is genuinely fantastic.
The only real challenger to Downey is another Bob. Robert DeNiro has phoned it in through so many mediocre, paychecks roles. Yet, when paired with the right material, he still knows how to bring it. As the pure manifestation of the banality of evil in "Killers of the Flower Moon," DeNiro was chilling. A late career honor for the film would be surprising but not unwelcomed.
Sterling K. Brown for "American Fiction" and Mark Ruffalo for "Poor Things" rounds out the category. I like both of those, so good for them. But I don't think they have much of a chance to win, unless the tide seriously changes over the next month.
OFFICIAL PREDICTION:
Robert Downey Jr. for "Oppenheimer"
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
There was some writing about how America Ferrera got passed over at the Globes for "Barbie." Ferrera is likable but she had the position in that film of blankly laying the script's themes out in a lengthy monologue. I found that heavy-handed. Apparently such tactics are not bothersome to the Academy, as they did give Ferrera a Supporting nod. I guess subtly is overrated.
Yet this is not a narrative that seems likely to win an Oscar. Instead, let us consider Da'vine Joy Randolph in "The Holdovers." Not many people had heard of Randolph before this film. She's best known for appearing on television, on stage, and in forgettable comedies. Yet she's blown the critics away in Payne's film. Who doesn't love that, when a relative unknown emerges into stardom on-screen?
The rest of the Supporting Actress seemed locked-in months ago. We all love Jodie Foster and Emily Blunt and both did fine work in "Oppenheimer" and "Nyad." Both got nominated more out of momentum for those films in general than anything else though, if you ask me. Danielle Brooks won praise in-stage in the musical adaptation of "The Color Purple" and now continues that streak with the film adaptation. While that trajectory has led to an Oscar before, this particular film doesn't seem to have the buzz necessary to pull that off.
OFFICIAL PREDICTION:
Da'vine Joy Randolph for "The Holdovers."
BEST DIRECTOR:
As much as the Academy enjoyed "Barbie," its two most prominent stars got left out. Yes, in addition to Margot Robbie not making the cut in Best Actress, Greta Gerwig was overlooked in Best Director. Honestly, that one really caught me off-guard, since the Academy has proven themselves to be fans of Gerwig before. Instead, AMPAS gave Justine Triet a nomination for "Anatomy of a Fall," presumably in order to keep cultural critics from accusing them of being sexist again.
Luckily for those folks, the Academy can still be criticized only for nominating white folks for Best Director this year. Cord Jefferson, for "American Fiction," got passed over probably in favor of Jonathan Glazer for "Zone of Interest." Maybe the Academy liked that one more than I expected.
If Glazer is a cultishly adored artist finally getting some recognition from the Oscars, the same can perhaps be said for Christopher Nolan. Of course, Nolan has been nominated before, including a Best Director slot for "Dunkirk." Yet, to the film-bros raised on "The Dark Knight" and "Memento," the Academy seems to have been reluctant to give Nolan a major win. Well, it seems this is finally Chris' year. The Academy loves Yorgos and "Poor Things" in particular. Scorsese is a total legend, who probably should have more Oscar than he already does, and "Killers of the Flower Moon" is an important work.
Yet neither seem to provide a serious threat to Nolan in this category. I think Best Director is his to lose.
OFFICIAL PREDICTION:
Christopher Nolan for "Oppenheimer."
BEST WRITING:
I never know what to predict in the Best Screenplay categories because what the hell does the Academy even mean by that? Does that mean the screenplay that is the sharpest, the wittiest? The most surprising? The best paced and structured? So many parts go into making a movie, that it's well-known that a good script can be ruined by bad directing, acting, or any other factors. Unless we actually have the shooting script in our hands, how can we even judge which screenplay is the “best?”
Maybe, as a writer, I'm simply too close to this subject to really be able to understand it. Cause, it seems to me, the Academy almost always just nominates the movie they liked in all the other categories in this one. Was “Maestro's” writing so stunning that it deserved a Best Original Screenplay nomination? If anything, the Original and Adapted Screenplay honors should exist to highlight films perhaps overlooked in the bigger categories. Of this batch of noms, only “May December” and “Past Lives” strikes me as an example of this, since they didn't earn too many other mentions.
As for who is going to win... Hell if I know. My most cynical side wants to say the Academy will give “American Fiction” Best Adapted Screenplay because it's literally about a writer and has the word “fiction” in its title. Yet, since Greta Gerwig got passed over for a chance at Best Director, it wouldn't shock me if she gets Best Adapted Screenplay. Or maybe “Oppenheimer” will just prove to be too overwhelming a juggernaut with voters to defeat. Meanwhile, in Original Screenplay, I can see the Academy leaning towards the satire of “Anatomy of a Fall” or the gentle observational dramedy of “The Holdovers.” But I'm almost definitely wrong.
OFFICIAL PREDICTION:
“Anatomy of a Fall” and “Barbie,” I guess.
BEST MUSIC:
Nominating Diane Warren in Best Song every year really has become some sort of unavoidable running joke with the Academy. This year, the vaguely Latin-infused, generic pop song she wrote for the Flamin' Hot Cheetos biopic – which is even more bullshit than your typical biopic – got nominated. This one rhymes "you" with "you" multiple times. But it could have been worst. At least I don't have to watch "80 for Brady."
Anyway, Warren has no shot at winning because the Oscar will almost assuredly go to one of the two nominated songs from "Barbie." "I'm Just Ken" is the obvious crowd-pleaser and showstopper but I wouldn't be shocked if the voters deem Billie Ellish's ballad "What Was I Made For" more worthy of a win. I like both songs and would be fine with either winning.
"Wahzhazhe (A Song of My People)" really isn't my genre but at least it guarantees the Best Song slate this year has variety. The most cynical part of my brain wagers that the Academy would have felt excessive guilt if they didn't nominate the Native American tribal song from the movie about Native Americans being killed. It would be hilarious if the broadcast still did all the songs in a medley, like in the old days, and we got six minutes of traditional Indigenous music in the middle of all these flashy pop songs. "It Never Went Away," from random Netflix doc "American Symphony," is kind of pretty. I'm a sucker for simple, piano driven melodies.
Of the Original Score nominees, the most unexpected entry is John Williams' score for "Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny." One expects Williams got the slot because this officially makes the industry legend the most nominated currently living person in the Academy's history. This is his 54th nomination! I don't think the "Dial of Destiny" is especially note-worthy but I'm never going to turn my nose up at the "Indiana Jones" theme.
The late Robbie Robertson's blues and roots rock infused score for "Killers of the Flower Moon" is fantastic, equal parts somber, suspenseful, and gritty. It's my favorite of the nominated soundtracks. However, I fully expect the emotional bombast of Ludwig Goransson's "Oppenheimer" score to win. It's a good score, especially the more stirring parts. I just like Robertson's work more.
Laura Karpman's "American Fiction" score is pleasant and jazzy. Even if its main theme sounds a little too much like incidental music for an eighties sitcom for my taste. Jerskin Fendrix's "Poor Things" score is, by far, the quirkiest of the nominees. Multiple parts of this soundtrack sound like they could be from totally different movies. I gotta admire the bold swings it takes though and found myself loving its warbling, discordant weirdness by the time I finished listening to the whole thing.
OTHER FILM CATEGORIES
A nomination was all but guaranteed but it still feels like a pleasant surprise that "The Boy and the Haron" got recognized in Best Animated Feature. I guess I'm still caught off-guard when the Academy acknowledges anime, even if this is Hayao Miyazaki we are talking about here. More exciting, it actually has a good shot at winning the Oscar. Even if the Academy's tendency to just vote for whatever Pixar put out or what their kids liked might throw things in favor of "Elemental" or "Across the Spider-Verse." At least they ignored Disney's big misfire last year, making room for smaller films like "Nimora" or "Robot Dreams."
Usually, there's a title in the documentary category that got a lot of critical attention. This year, there is no obvious frontrunner in Best Documentary Feature. Will the streaming accessibility of "Bobi Wine: The People's President" lead to Oscar gold, or will we see a repeat of sorts of last year's win with "20 Days in Mariupol?"
I have little familiarity with the short nominees as of this writing. Yet "War is Over" sounds like the most heavy-handed and preachiest of the animated shorts, so I'm going to assume it'll win.
MISC:
For decades, Toho's "Godzilla" movies were synonymous with cheesy and unconvincing effects. At least among the mainstream American critical establishment. Now, the King of the Monsters is finally an Oscar nominee, with "Godzilla Minus One" earning a nod in Best Visual Effects. Even better, it seems to be the frontrunner in the category at this moment. The narrative of a (probably ridiculously overworked) smaller effects team pulling off such impressive work on a fraction of the budget big Hollywood films like "Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3" or "Napoleon" had might be too irresistible for the Academy. Either way, the way the team reacted to the news of the nomination is absolutely delightful. (I would've liked to have seen "Minus One" make it into Editing or Sound as well but let's not ask for too much here.) Also, I did not expect the Academy to remember "The Creator" enough to give it any nominations, much less two.
Unfortunately, the Make-Up category is unbearably lame this year. There's not a single cool nomination this year, the entire category taken up by boring realistic make-up work from "Golda" or "Oppenheimer." You're really telling me that Bradley Cooper's big, fake nose in "Maestro" deserved a nomination over an entire planet of gorgeously realized animal humanoids in "Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3" or the beautifully grotesque ghouls of "Talk to Me?" Once again, realism remains frustratingly valued over imagination and the Academy shows little respect for genre work. I guess "Poor Things" is horror adjacent, so I'm rooting for it here.
The complete lock-out for "Asteroid City" in Best Cinematography or Production Design is a travesty but, unfortunately, a fully expected one. At least "El Conde" getting recognized in the latter category was a nice surprise. Ya know, I've never seen a single "Mission: Impossible" movie before. I guess I'll have to watch the entire series before getting to "Dead Reckoning Part One," which showed up in Sound and Visual Effects. Anyway, I fully expect "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer" to sweep most of the technical categories.
The ceremony doesn't air until March 10th, which should give me plenty of time to catch up with everything before the results are revealed. Ya know, assuming I don't put off most of it until the week before like I almost always do. Jimmy Kimmel is hosting again which is... Fine. Whatever, who cares about the host. Last year's ceremony was a big improvement over the trash fire that was 2022, so let's hope things continue to swing upward. Let's get this Oscar Death Race on the move, folks!
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