Oscar season is here once again. The last two ceremonies have been such outrageous disasters, marked by weirdo pandemic shooting perimeters, bungled attempts to pay homage to fallen talent, disrespectful comedy skits that make it seem like the telecast writers don’t even like movies, and an unprecedented smack in the mouth that people wouldn’t stop talking about for weeks. When combined with the growing disparity between what general audiences actually watch and what critics and industry insiders enjoy, it’s made the Academy Awards seem like an even more questionable enterprise. The broadcast has started to feel like a desperate circus and the question of “Who are these even for?” floats hopelessly in the air.
Things seem grim but there is hope. Because I know who the Oscars are for. They are for me! And, well, people like me too, those who delight in Academy Award history and pride themselves on watching all the nominees every year. We’re film fans. We love movies and think they are important. I don’t know if the people running the Oscars, or even the Academy voters who decide what’s nominated and what wins, feel that way. The actual outcome is almost besides the point for me. I love the nominees, I love the snubs, I love the glitz and glamour. I love catching up with what Hollywood itself deems the best and brightest of the previous year. I just can’t help it.
And so the time has come for me to dig into the nominees and give my hopelessly uninformed predictions of who will win. It is time once again.
BEST PICTURE:
In recent years, heavily promoted streaming exclusives with little crossover success and art house darlings have come to dominate the Best Picture race, much to the alienation of your average movie-goer. Maybe there was a deliberate push this year to nominate movies people had actually seen. Blockbuster, crowd pleasers like “Top Gun: Maverick,” “Avatar: The Way of Water,” and “Elvis” all scored Best Picture nominations. Of course, these movies were critically acclaimed too, representing a sort of older style spectacle in a big movie landscape increasingly dominated by samey superhero movies.
This isn’t to say that the usual kind of artsy, streaming releases didn’t place in this category. I doubt the average person on the street has heard of vomit-filled bourgeois satire “Triangle or Sadness.” A fact-based drama about sexual assault like “Women Talking” or a grim German-language war movie like “All Quiet on the Western Front,” currently playing in around a 1000 theaters or buried on Netflix respectively, are not the kind of cinema non-film nerds are invested in. One could argue that nominating movies like this is why the Oscar broadcasts have such low ratings these days.
Mixed in there are what you would define as more typical Oscar movies: Beloved new releases from respected filmmakers. “The Banshees of Inisherin,” “Tar,” and “The Fabelmans” come to us from critical darlings and Academy favorites like Martin McDonagh, Todd Fields, and Steven Spielberg. “The Fabelmans” is a love letter to cinema itself, making it a logical choice to win Best Picture. While “The Banshees” is the kind of respectful, middlebrow tragicomedy that I could totally see also winning the top prize. (“Tar” probably won’t win Best Picture, though styling itself after the always buzzy biopic – even though it’s totally fictional – didn’t hurt its chances.)
Yet we live in stranger times than that. Here in 2023, the clear front runner for Best Picture is an extremely quirky, 25-million dollar indie movie that features kung-fu fights, a multiversal comic book plot, hot dog fingers, an interdimensional bagel, and multiple butt plug jokes. “Everything Everywhere All at Once” became the little movie that could last year. Beloved by critics, surprisingly popular with audiences, and hotly debated by the Film Twitter set, this unlikely movie seems to be the predicted fave to walk away with Hollywood’s top honor this year. Honestly, I’ll be a little surprised if that comes to past. I can see the older Academy voters skewing things in “The Banshees of Inisherin” or “The Fabelmans’” direction but, for now…
OFFICIAL PREDICTIONS:
Probably “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
BEST ACTOR:
The Academy loves nothing more than a comeback story. Brendan Fraser was, for a brief glorious period, a box office attraction who never quite got the respect he deserved critically. He slowly disappeared from the spotlight for years before the sad reasons for this made him an internet favorite. The Brendan Fraser redemption arc has been brewing for years and seems to be headed for its expected climax, with the actor winning an Oscar for Darren Afronofsky’s buzzy indie drama “The Whale…” Except “The Whale” has been critically divisive, with mixed reviews and accusations of fatphobia and being a miserable slog. Will this backlash be enough to cost Fraser his Oscar?
I don’t think so, namely because Fraser doesn’t have any real competition. The closest challenger is Colin Farrell, in “The Banshees of Inisherin.” Farrell is a respected performer and seems likely to win an Oscar someday. Yet there’s not much heat behind his campaign this year. Austin Butler might’ve been a front runner in a different year, as “Elvis” has many of the hallmarks of your typical Oscar success story. But Butler seems too new to the business to already be deemed a winner and people seem divided in whether his performance is great or goofy.
Rounding up the docket are two performers who are unlikely to win but I’m happy to see them anyway. Bill Nighy in “Living” represents a long-working character actor finally getting some love from the Academy for some random British movie I had never even heard of until a few days ago. Paul Mescal in “Aftersun,” meanwhile, really seemed like a long shot to me until this morning. I would’ve guess that movie was too indie and low-key for the Academy. I guess A24’s campaign budget this year must’ve been enormous.
OFFICIAL PREDICTION:
Brendan Fraser for “The Whale”
BEST ACTRESS:
Best Actress is maybe the most interesting of the big categories this year. There’s a compelling narrative behind almost all the nominees here. My favorite of which revolves around Andrea Risenborough. “To Leslie” is a tiny, not widely seen indie that was seemingly on nobody’s lips at the end of last year. Yet the people who did see “To Leslie” were other actresses, who were apparently blown away. A campaign led by Kate Winslet and multiple other high-profile performers to get Risenborough a nomination for the obscure film was a success. Honestly, seeing the established names in a field use their influence to shine a spotlight on a less well-known name is very touching to me.
It’s a great story but Risenborough still seems like a long-shot to win. Months back, Cate Blanchette seem to solidify her chances of winning her third Oscar for “Tar.” Not much has changed in the weeks that have followed and Blanchette is still among the most talked about nominees. Lydia Tar is exactly the kind of difficult, multifaceted character that Academy voters love.
Yet there is a certain degree of unpredictability in this year’s nominees. Years of incredible work has taken Michelle Yeoh from a cult favorite to a beloved, international icon. If the Academy loved “Everything Everywhere All at Once” so much that they made it the most nominated movie of the year, it stands to reason that the actress the entire film is a loving tribute to has a good chance at winning.
And that would be great, but there’s another Michelle to consider. Michelle Williams has proven herself to be among the most versatile and talented performers in Hollywood. She’s been nominated for an Oscar five times previously. Her performance in “The Fabelmans” is clearly a highlight of that movie. In a less competitive year, she probably would’ve been a lock. Now, she seems like a probable runner-up.
Rounding out the list is a nominee I really didn’t expected. Ana de Armas was slotted into the Oscar race early on for her performance as Marilyn Monroe in “Blonde.” After people actually saw the controversial movie, and it received a critical pummeling, her chances at getting a nod seemed slim. Yet something about de Armas’ performance might’ve impressed the Academy as they did nominated her. (Likely pushing out expected nominees like Viola Davis and Danielle Deadwyler.) This has caused the widely disliked “Blonde” to earn the coveted title of this year’s Villain Movie at the Oscars.
OFFICIAL PREDICTION:
Probably Cate Blanchette in “Tar,” though I’m rooting for Yeoh.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
If Fraser is the main comeback story of this year's Oscar season, a no less unexpected turn has been Ke Huy Quan's path to award season gold. Watching the eighties child actor get a great role in “Everything Everywhere All at Once” was delightful. Seeing him grab multiple statues along the way has been even better. Will he win the Oscar as well?
The odds seem to favor him, though the former Short Round does have some stiff competition. Brendan Gleeson is a beloved character actor who has been giving fine performances for years. A win for “The Banshees of Inisherin” would be a fitting achievement atop his entire career. Barry Keoghan is also nominated for the same movie and seems to have the stand-out role in the film. He's similarly been stacking up award seasons wins. It certainly seems probable that either of these two could take home the Oscar.
Rounding out the category is Judd Hirsch in “The Fabelmans,” in the kind of wise mentor role that the Academy simply loves. The real surprise in this category was Brian Tyree Henry in “Causeway,” a movie that had all but disappeared from the award season chatter. I had honestly forgotten about that one and certainly didn't expect a nomination. I don't think either of those guys have a shot at winning though.
OFFICIAL PREDICTION:
While I can totally see Gleeson or Keoghan winning, I'm hopeful Ke Huy Quan gets it.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Best Supporting Actress is the main category this year without much in the way of a major front runner. Kerry Condon has been raking up nominations and many wins all throughout the award season. In a more normal Oscar year, she would probably win. And she still has a good chance at it.
However, this is an odd category this year. “Everything Everywhere All At Once” has earned two supporting nods, for Jamie Lee Curtis and Stephanie Hsu. While I love that Curtis is finally an Oscar nominee, I'm surprised it's for a simple role like this. Hsu has the juicier part and there's a feeling in my bones that she might just get it. Meanwhile, Hong Chau has definitely earned some strong notices for “The Whale” as well.
Yet we can't forget that the Academy voters frequently loves to give awards to honor whole careers and make up for missed opportunities. Though the Slap has eclipsed in terms of notoriety, I bet some Academy members are still feeling the sting of the 2021 broadcast's biggest gaff: Building the entire emotional climax of the show around Chadwick Boseman winning Best Actor... Only for someone else to win instead. Since “Black Panther 2” is an entire movie built around carrying the weight of Boseman's loss, and Angela Basset does the majority of the Capital A Acting in that one, she has emerged as the favorite to win here. And who says superhero movies aren't cinema?
OFFICIAL PREDICTION:
I still feel like Condon may pull off a surprise win here but Angela Basset seems like the safest bet.
BEST DIRECTOR:
In the history of the Oscars, duos have incredibly strong odds in the Best Director category. Only two teams have been nominated before – Robert Wise and Jerome Robbins in 1962, for “West Side Story,” and the Coen brothers in 2008, for “No Country for Old Men” – and both won. This seems to shine brightly on Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, collectively known as “Daniels.” They would probably be the favorites to win anyway, as “Everything Everywhere All at Once” is clearly the Academy’s favorite this year. Yet the historical odds seem to be in their favor.
Only sentimentality seems likely to disrupt this victory. Obviously, Steven Spielberg is probably the most respected director working today. “The Fabelmans” is his most personal film yet and I can see the Academy giving him the award simply for that reason. I also can’t shake the feeling that “The Banshees of Inisherin” may prove to be the dark horse candidate this year, with Martin McDonaugh sweeping up a win on the way to surprise Best Picture victory.
At the bottom of likely winners is Todd Fields for “Tar” and a surprise nominee for Ruben Ostlund for “Triangle of Sadness,” a movie the Academy liked way more than expected. Neither have any chance of winning this year but it wouldn’t surprise me if the Academy gives them statues at some point in the future.
OFFICIAL PREDICTION:
Daniels for “Everything Everywhere All at Once.”
BEST WRITING:
Of course, Fields and Ostlund have another shot in the Best Original Screenplay category. In fact, the Academy nominated the exact same group of people for Best Original Screenplay as they did for Best Director. Since the category is Original, and “Everything Everywhere All at Once” has been widely acclaimed for its zany originality, it seems probable that the Daniels will pick up statues in this category as well. (Which may shift the favor towards Spielberg in the Best Director category.) Yet my gut is telling me that Martin McDonaugh is the most writerly of the writers here, with “The Banshees of Inisherin” feeling like the most script-centric of these nominees. I think it’ll win.
While the Academy did a total copy-paste job in Original Screenplay, the nominee for Adapted Screenplay feel a little more chaotic. “All Quiet on the Western Front” is by far the most respectable of the nominees here, with “Women Talking” being the buzziest and most relevant. Both are likely winners for that reason. “Glass Onion” would receive its sole nomination here, as being a sequel apparently classifies a movie as Adapted. This is also why “Top Gun: Maverick,” a movie whose writing seems like its least notable element, placed in this category. Last place is “Living,” a remake of Kurasawa’s “Ikiru,” that was on few radars before Tuesday but apparently impressed the writing branch enough. That it was written by an internationally beloved novelist was probably a factor.
OFFICIAL PREDICTIONS:
“The Banshees of Inisherin” and “Women Talking.”
BEST MUSIC:
This year, the Academy gave veteran songwriter and perpetual Best Song nominee Diane Warren an honorary Oscar. Yet even this is not enough to bring our long national nightmare to an end. By which I mean Warren scored her token nominee this year – her fourteenth – for some sappy song from some fucking movie nobody has heard of. “Applause” is from “Tell It Like a Woman,” an inspirational anthology feature of some sort centering around women. It's sung by Sofia Carson, apparently a former Disney Channel star, who goes way over the top in belting out another set of faux-inspirational lyrics. At least the melody is mildly pretty, even if I'm left wondering how Warren keeps get nominated.
She'll probably get nominated again next year too, as I don't think her long-sought win is coming in 2023. If “Top Gun: Maverick's” status as a multiple Oscar nominee came as a surprise, it was always pretty much a given that Lady Gaga's theme song, “Hold My Hand,” would get a Best Song nod. Might “Hold My Hand” repeat the Oscar success that “Take My Breath Away” experienced with the original “Top Gun?” Maybe. Gaga's vocals soar over instrumentation that is a bit overwrought. Yet even a sourpuss like me has to admire the bombastic energy to this love ballad, especially once the wailing guitar solo kicks in.
Yet an unexpected victor seems to have emerged. The overwhelming awesome “RRR” did not score a nomination in Best International Film, because India didn't submit it to the Academy. Yet the absolutely irrepressible “Naatu Naatu” still grabbed a Best Song nod. It's maybe the best musical number I've seen in a movie in years, an utterly joyful and propulsive celebration of the two bro-iest bros in India dancing the shoes off some stuffy Englishmen. I don't know if the song is as good as the dance scene... But only because the scene is outstanding, while the song is merely great. It has to win, right?
It better but I wouldn't be shocked if the Academy gave the Oscar to Gaga or Rihanna's “Hold Me Up,” from “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” instead. The Rihanna song is pretty, I suppose, with an effective lullaby like melody. At least until she starts warbling tunelessly in the last third. And I guess the Academy's love for “Everything Everywhere All at Once” was further confirmed with even its theme song getting a nomination. I love David Byrne and occasionally enjoy Mitski but I found the song pretty forgettable and meandering. Hopefully “Naatu Naatu” fever will grip the Academy too.
Son Lux's score for “Everything Everywhere All At Once” got nominated too. It's a fittingly quirky score, full of creative piano melodies, scattering soundscapes, discordant jazz riffs, and thumping electronic touches. It's interesting but probably too weird to win an Oscar.
Justin Hurwitz' fusion of big band, jazz, and modern dance music for “Babylon” is certainly energetic, and probably the most listenable score here when separated from its source movie, but I wonder if it'll appeal to the stodgy music branch of the Academy. Carter Burwell's “Banshees of Inisherin” score is much more traditional and, it must be said, very pretty. John Williams' score for “The Fabelmans” is even more traditional and also extremely pretty. Considering Williams is in his nineties, I wouldn't be shocked if the Academy honors him with one more Oscars. (If he won, it would be his sixth.) Volker Bertelmann's doom-laden score for “All Quiet on the Western Front” is definitely the heaviest, and least easy on the ears, of these nominees. Though it is effective in its own way.
OTHER FILM CATEGORIES:
2022 was an incredibly high-profile year for feature length animation but the Academy’s nominees barely tell that story. I never expected the raw weirdness of “Mad God” to score a nomination but I hoped Netflix’s campaign money would be enough to score a nod for “Wendell & Wild.” Instead, another offering from the streaming giant scooped up the fifth slot, with the CGI sea monster feature “The Sea Beast” receiving a surprise nomination. (This also pushed out any of G-Kids’ potential selections.)
The likely winner seems to be another Netflix production, with “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” being by far the most prestige festooned of the nominees. You can’t overlook the possibility that the Academy will just give it to Pixar again though. And it’s not like the excellent “Turning Red” wouldn't deserve it. The expected Dreamworks selection is “Puss in Boots: The Last Wish,” which received far better reviews than you’d expect from a decade-late sequel to a forgettable “Shrek” spin-off.
A24 is having a very good year at the Oscars. “All the Beauty and the Bloodshed” is currently the fave to win Best Documentary and it’s easy to imagine a story of cultural relevance and artistic ambitions resonating with Academy voters. Yet there’s still a part of me that feels like A24’s arthouse pretensions may be too much for voters. (While “A House Made of Splinters” and “Navalny” will probably resonate with people who feel the war in the Ukraine is the story of the year.) I can imagine feel-good nature documentaries like “All That Breathes” or “Fires of Love” being a little more their speed.
“All Quiet on the Western Front,” considering how much the Academy likes it, is all but guaranteed to pick up Best International Feature. Though I can’t help but root for “EO,” the quirky Polish road movie starring a donkey. Also, I hope “My Year of Dicks” picks up Best Animated Short, just so the presenter is forced to say that title on live television.
MISC.:
“Top Gun: Maverick” has its eye on the Best Sound award, I'm betting, and probably Best Editing too. (Though the hyper-kinetic visuals of “Everything Everywhere All at Once” pose a major challenger.) It would probably be a slam-dunk in the Best Visual Effects too if “Avatar: The Way of Water” didn't loom over that category so oppressively.
Otherwise, the technical categories are all over the place this year. There are few obvious frontrunners. One assumes “Empire of Light” got its sole nomination, in Best Cinematography, out of deference to Roger Deakins' reputation, as that film otherwise has no buzz in a category with little hype. The colorful comic book costumes of “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” seem like a probable winner, though “Babylon's” period detailing is its next biggest rival. Damian Chazelle's divisive postmortem on Hollywood's golden age also has strong chances in Production Design, though “Elvis” is also a contender in there. I think “The Batman” turning Colin Farrell into the Penguin means it deserves the Best Make-Up Oscar but the pounds of latex they buried Brendan Fraser under in “The Whale” seems the likelier winner.
Regardless of the outcomes, I'm going to try and squeeze in as many of the nominees as possible before the March 12th broadcast. I've managed to see all of the nominees in the last three years but there's some hard-to-find titles this year, so we'll see. Hopefully Jimmy Kimmel will restrain himself from ranting about how “Spider-Man” should've been nominated while hosting.
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