Here's the facts, you guys. Last night, I was so excited about the Oscar nominations being announced today that I could hardly sleep. I actually got up very early in the morning, a rarity for me on my days off, so I could watch the live-stream announcements of the nominations. I've been waiting for this all month, making mental lists over and over again of what might get nominated, what order I'll watch and review things in. It's fair to say it's been occupying a lot of my mental headspace all year.
Of course, I've already seen my Movie Friends express disappointment over what was and wasn't nominated. (And it's only been two hours as I write this, so I fully expect The Discourse to grow more heated in the coming weeks.) Sure, I could complain that good films, and potentially good films I haven't seen yet, were passed over in favor of other things. I'm sure the passionate defenders of “The Farewell,” “Uncut Gems,” “Portrait of a Lady on Fire,” and “Hustlers” are totally right to be annoyed. Yet, speaking strictly for myself, the Oscars themselves get me excited. I can't complained about the snubs because devoting myself totally to working my way through a checklist of recognized films is reward enough for me.
Honestly, the only thing that really irritates me about the Oscars in 2020 is the decision to move the ceremony up several weeks. Instead of the broadcast airing in late February, as is tradition, it is airing on the 9th. With the nominations not being revealed until today, that gives me a lot less time than usual to catch-up. The next twenty-six days are going to be a frenzied race to get through as many of these as possible. As challenging as that'll be, as irritated as I'm certain I'll be by the end, a part of me can't help but be hyped about that too.
So enough chatter. Let's take a look at the nominees and my (no doubt hopelessly inaccurate predictions) for the winners.
BEST PICTURE:
Before we go any further, we must, once again, consider 2020's “Villain Movies.” Taika Watiti's “Jojo Rabbit” is actually a fairly cute motion picture but the movie's weird hands-off approach to its own politics has made it extremely divisive among film fans. I've seen people fucking hating on this movie so much in the last few months. Naturally, some voters love it and it's picked up several high profile wins along the Award Season circuit. However, the hype definitely seems to have turned against “Jojo,” so a Best Picture win strikes me as unlikely.
Yet, as divisive as “Jojo” is, it's clearly not the true Villain of 2020's Oscar season. How do you even explain the cultural and political quagmire that surrounds “Joker?” The DC-Comics-In-Name-Only film became a billion-dollar-grossing success last year, as well as a lightning rod for debate and discussion. It seems to me the movie's attempts at cultural commentary are shallow as can be, while its internal attitudes are undeniably toxic. (It's also the emptiest of homages to Martin Scorsese, in a weird case of a pastiche being paired against the actual originator.) Oscar voters, however, frequently aren't actually smart enough to see through that shit. “Joker” has swept several award shows and seems primed to pick up several statues on the 9th. Will Best Picture be among them? Probably not don't be shocked if some split in the votes lead to a massive upset in the Clown Prince of Crime's favor.
In truth, the Best Picture frontrunners were locked-in weeks ago. There was always a question if Greta Gerwig's “Little Women” or “Ford V. Ferrari” would sneak into the top list. (The former because of the Academy's “Ewww, girls” phobia, the latter because the reviews were good, not great.) Truthfully, both films were also assured spots. Greta Gerwig's “Lady Bird,” after all, secured a spot and “Little Women” is a costume drama, so there's no way Oscar wasn't going to at least love it a little. The dadcore bio-pic charms of “Ford V. Ferrari” was also clearly going to appeal to the voting body.
The other nominations were also easy to predict. “The Irishman” is clearly an epic undertaking, in scope and run time, from one of the most respected filmmakers in the land. It's a re-teaming for Scorsese with some of the most beloved actors of the modern age, returning to the gangster genre that has come define all of their careers. Nothing short of the greatest boondoggle in film history would've prevented this from being a Best Picture front runner. And there's still a chance it might win too.
A similar combination of subject matter, epic approach, and a respected director similarly pushed “1917” to the forefront of the Oscar landscape. (Though Sam Mendes is not quite in the same ballpark as Scorsese, when it comes to long-term critical recognition.) Even though it wasn't actually shot in one-take, the film's visual approach to its thrilling story clearly caught people's attention. Unsurprisingly, “1917” has been picking up awards left and right from other shows and ceremonies. In a more traditional time, it would probably have been an obvious choice for Best Picture.
Yet, these days, it's clear what Oscar voters actually favor. They want something they can relate too. “Marriage Story” is from another respected director, even if Noah Baumbach's cred is more indie than mainstream. It's also about the dissolving marriage of a couple in the entertainment industry. It's kind of funny to think that this is, in fact, a scenario that a lot of Academy voters can relate to. Though the movie's meme-spawning central scenes might not resonate with the Twitter crowd, the rave reviews and its obvious appeal to the Academy made it a lock for a nomination. Again, if this was the nineties, it probably would win Best Picture.
However, it seems to me that Oscar's biggest fetish is – no shock here – movies themselves. Movies about the magic of movies have won the top prize – I'm talking “The Shape of Water,” “Argo,” and “The Artist” – several times in recent years. And it's pretty clear which film is filling that slot this year. “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” though not without its own controversy, is probably Quentin Tarantino's most beloved feature in years. An unerringly sincere love letter to Hollywood magic, I pegged it early-on as a likely Best Picture winner.
Will this come to past? Possibly but there's a dark horse candidate that has raced to the front recently. Bong Joon-ho's “Parasite,” a dark satire about class inequality, the eternal conflict between the haves and have-nots, is widely recognized as 2019's best film. The critical buzz, and growing number of high-profile wins it has grabbed, is such that many assume "Parasite" may take home Best Picture. And it might. However, we went through this last year when “Roma” seemed like a reasonable pick for Best Picture, only for the dumb-ass Academy to give it to fuckin' “Green Book” instead. So while “Parasite” remains a lock for the newly renamed Best International Film category, I'll still say it has only a 50/50 shot at Best Picture. Because the Academy voting body is not as hip as you actually think. They actually are that afraid of subtitles.
Official Prediction:
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” unless it's “Parasite.”
BEST ACTOR:
Robert DeNiro is Robert DeNiro, a beloved Hollywood icon that already has two Oscars to his name and a bunch of existing nominations. So I guess the Academy figured he didn't need another. DeNiro, the actual star of “The Irishman,” was not among the film's many nominations announced today. The spot that probably would've gone to Bobby went to Jonathan Pryce for “The Two Popes.” That's some Netflix thing that hasn't generated much discussion but seems well-liked by actual voting bodies. Pryce is an awesome, hard working character actor with a long career and this is his first Oscar nomination, so good for him.
That's not the real controversy in the Best Actor category. Leo DiCaprio and Adam Driver were obviously going to be nominated, for “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” and “Marriage Story” respectively. But Leo finally claimed his Oscar a few years back and Driver, though destined to win eventually, isn't there yet. No, once again, it's “Joker” that is generating debate. The intensity of Joaquin Phoenix's lead performance seems to be the one thing people can actually agree about the divisive film. Early on, he was pegged as a favorite to win Best Actor. He's still the favorite to win, even if the increasing eccentricity of his acceptance speeches are rubbing people the wrong way.
Yet there's a potential other choice here. Antonio Banderas is another beloved performer that has somehow never been nominated before. “Pain and Glory” is another movie about the film industry, from respected auteur Pedro Almodovar. Banderas' performance has won him several other awards and the positive buzz is continually growing for him. If the debate over “Joker” continues to split voters, it might work in Banderas' favor.
Official Prediction:
Joaquin Phoenix for “Joker,” unless it's Antonio Banderas for “Pain and Glory.”
BEST ACTRESS:
Though widely beloved, there was this fear that the Academy's weird attitude towards woman directors might prevent “Little Women” from getting more Oscar attention. I'm sure the film's fans are somewhat satisfied there wasn't a total “Little Women” lock-out. Saoirse Ronan, who has quickly become another Oscar favorite, snagged a Best Actress nomination.
And a win, based solely on the Academy's good will towards Ronan, doesn't seem entirely impossible. In fact, there's little in the way of a clear winner in the Best Actress race this year. Charlize Theron seemed to have sneaked in due to award season inertia, as “Bombshell's” actual merits seem debatable at best. Cynthia Erivo is a wonderful actress and gives a strong performance in “Harriet” but my cynical side makes me think she got nominated strictly to avoid another #OscarsSoWhite controversy. (And I mean barely, as the nominations are still overwhelmingly white this year.)
That leaves two other possible Best Actress winners. The Academy is obviously a big fan of Scarlett Johannson this year, giving her two nominations in two separate categories. This suggests the voters are favoring her this year and her performance in “Marriage Story” seems to have been lovingly received. Yet there's nothing voters love more than a comeback story. After several years in obscurity, Renee Zellweger returned with “Judy.” Playing a beloved Hollywood figure with a notoriously difficult life is also an easy path to Oscar gold. Those two elements paired together might make Zellweger a winner, even if “Judy” failed to earn much more attention from the Academy.
Official Prediction:
Renee Zellweger for “Judy”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
While Bobby himself missed the boat, “The Irishman” received a lot of love in the Supporting category. Joe Pesci and Al Pacino grab two of the five slots. This was widely assumed to come to pass. So was a nomination for Tom Hanks as Mr. Rogers in “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood.” I mean, an unanimously beloved performer like Hanks playing Fred Rogers, the cultural paragon of wholesomeness and acceptance, was always a lock for a nomination. (And even Anthony Hopkins earning a nod for “The Two Popes” wasn't too shocking, even if the general attitude towards the movie seems less “This is great” and more “What the hell even is this?”)
I don't think any of them are going to win though. If there's no other sure shot at the 2020 Oscars, you can count on Brad Pitt winning Best Supporting Actor for “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.” Pitt already has a Golden Globe, a Critics' Choice Award, and a litany of other statues in his favor for this one. Pitt is one of our few remaining capital-S Movie Stars and he's never won an Oscar before. Cliff Booth is a character that sums up all of Pitt's laid-back charm, casual sexiness, and easy-going macho bravado. This is his year.
Official Prediction:
Brad Pitt for “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
With Jennifer Lopez and Zhao Shuzhen both being left out, Best Supporting Actress ended up being a much less interesting race than expected. Kathy Bates and “Richard Jewell” got nominations seemingly because both her and Clint Eastwood are beloved by voters. Nobody seems especially excited about “Bombshell” or Margot Robbie's performance in it but, well, this is a case of the Academy just shrugging and saying “a bunch of other people are nominating it.” Florence Pugh for “Little Women” was a nice surprise, because Florence Pugh is awesome, but this isn't her year.
So that leaves two choices as the likely winners. If Scarlett Johansson doesn't win Best Actress for “Marriage Story,” her odds of winning for “Jojo Rabbit” go way up. Johansson's lovable performance as the titular boy's mom was a highlight of the film. The Academy is clearly determined to give Johansson some sort of honor this year. It seems she won her spot in the modern pantheon of both culturally and critically beloved actors. (As long as she's not talking about diversity in casting.)
Yet it seems to me that the tide has recently turned to favor Scarlett's “Marriage Story” co-star, Laura Dern. Dern is another long-working character actress that has recently become a beloved figure, because she's both really talented and also seems to genuinely enjoy acting. This is Dern's third Oscar nomination and “Marriage Story” has already won her a ton of other awards. This looks like it'll be the one.
Official Prediction:
Laura Dern for “Marriage Story.”
BEST DIRECTOR:
While Gerwig being left out is a disappointment, Best Director is still among the most exciting races at the Oscars this year. It truly seems like it's almost anybody's game. Martin Scorsese is an icon and “The Irishman” is a statement on practically his entire career, so an Oscar win would be poetic. “1917” is the kind of bravado visual filmmaking that really impresses the voter base, meaning Sam Mendes has a good shot at Best Director too. If “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” ends up being the Best Picture favorite, Quentin Tarantino might finally grab a Best Director Oscar to go with his two Best Original Screenplay statues. Bong Joon Ho seems like the correct artistic pick for Best Director and sometimes that actually does sway the Academy. And then there's Todd Philips and “Joker,” the agents of chaos threatening to piss everyone off with an unexpected win.
Official Prediction:
Not a fucking clue. My gut says Bong-Joon Ho for “Parasite.”
BEST WRITING:
I wondered for a while if “Knives Out,” a critical and audience favorite of 2019, would actually impress the Academy or not. In a year full of hot button choices, a well executed genre picture like “Knives Out” probably was always going to get lost in the shuffle. Still, I'm happy Rian Johnson's murder-mystery inversion managed to score at least one nod, in the Best Original Screenplay category.
I don't know if it'll win though. If Bong-Joon Ho and “Parasite” end up being ignored in the Best Picture and Director race, a win in Best Original Screenplay might by a consolation prize. Tarantino's scripts are always lauded, meaning “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” might be a winner here too. The interpersonal drama of “Marriage Story” is also the kind of “writerly” subject that appeals to voters. (“1917” seems like a weird pick in this category though.)
As for Adapted Screenplay, “The Two Popes” continues to be inexplicably beloved. Though it's more an adaptation of "The King of Comedy" than any DC Comic, “Joker” also snagged a nod in this category. If “Little Women” wins nowhere else, this might be the best category most favoring it, while “The Irishman' is clearly an impressive work that might be hard to overlook. The mix of light-hearted quirk, life-changing lessons, and sentimentality “Jojo Rabbit” provides seems like the kind of thing Academy voters would go for. But the writing categories are often the trickiest to predict, if only because so many factors determine these things.
Official Predictions:
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” unless “Parasite,” and “Jojo Rabbit,” unless “Little Women.”
BEST MUSIC:
When it was announced that “I'm Standing With You” from “Breakthrough” was among this year's Best Original Song nominees, it was greeted with a resounding chorus of “Huh?” It wasn't even until I was looking up all the nominees on IMDb that I realized what this movie even was. Yes, congrats to this Jesus movie about the magical healing power of prayer or what the fuck ever for being one of those random-ass movies to somehow score an Oscar nomination. Excuse me for being cynical but I'm assuming this is another “Alone Yet Not Alone” scenario, where the producer buddied up to a bunch of voters. The song starts out kind of pretty, based on Chrissy Metz' vocals, but it looses me as soon as the gospel chorus comes in. The song becomes extremely repetitive after that.
At least “Stand Up” from “Harriet” has the guts to actually stand behind its spiritual influence, even if its lyrics are extremely literal for a movie about the Underground Railroad. The song luckily is not too overproduced, allowing Cynthia Erivo's powerful vocals to largely speak for themselves. That counts for a lot in a category largely ruled by magniloquence.
In fact, there's a reoccurring gospel influence throughout three of the Best Song nominees, as it's also briefly heard in “I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away” from “Toy Story 4.” (The chorus of which is also very repetitive.) I don't think anyone would consider this one among Randy Newman's best or most original numbers. In fact, I was really surprised it scored a nomination at all. It's not a bad song, with a decent amount of bounce and pep, but it also feels a little like Randy phoned this one in. I guess the Academy's all-abiding love of Newman – his charmingly prosaic score for “Marriage Story” was also nominated – was enough to push this one through.
Disney has been pushing “Into the Unknown” as the “Frozen II” awards favorite from the beginning. Which is so weird, as “Show Yourself” and “Lost in the Woods” are obviously the better songs. “Into the Unknown” shows all the weaknesses of the Lopezes as songwriters and tries too hard to recapture the bombast of the first film's “Let It Go.” But “Show Yourself” spoils plot points, I guess, while Disney was obviously going to promote an Idina Menzel number over any of the songs she didn't sing. All of this combines to mean this mediocre song has a really good chance at winning.
However, Elton John stands in the way of Disney's victory. “Rocketman” was locked out of all other categories, even though the Academy adored the same director's “Bohemian Rhapsody” last year. (Even though it was largely considered the better version of the same sort of movie. Best Actor was always a long shot for “Rocketman” but I figured it had a chance at Costume Design or something.) “I'm Going to Love Me Again” is Elton John at his catchiest and most upbeat, an infectious pop ode to self-acceptance. It's obviously the best of a pretty weak lot of nominees. Come on, this has to win Best Original Song.
The Best Score category is a little stronger, as far as choices go. The pack is led by Alexandre Desplat's lively “Little Women” score. The music happily matches the tone and feeling of the film, while utilizing period appropriate instruments and being a strong piece of music in its own right. Thomas Newman's work on “1917” is emotionally resonant, the music delivering the right feeling – whether that be quietly building tension or tranquil beauty – exactly as it is needed. And, as already mentioned, Randy Newman's “Marriage Story” score is nice too.
However, I think one of two choices will win. John Williams' “The Rise of Skywalker” score is at least as good as any of his other “Star Wars” scores. It's also probably going to be his last score and it would be fitting if this iconic composer ended his career with an Oscar. (If he won, it would be his sixth.) Also highly critically acclaimed is Hildur Guonadottir's “Joker” score. It's a grinding, heaving piece of music, a disquieting collection of sounds that is nevertheless melodic in its own way and effectually suits the movie it accompanies, regardless of what you think of that film's message or meaning. It'll probably win.
OTHER FILM CATEGORIES:
Among the most prominent snubs this year is “Frozen II” being ignored in Best Animated Feature. The yearly entry into the Disney Animated Canon almost always gets a Best Animated Feature nomination. A lot of voters don't even like animation and just vote for whatever Disney put out anyway. I'd chalk this up to the Academy being weary of sequels but... “How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World” and “Toy Story 4” did earn nominations.
With that shock exclusion, quirkier fare has taken up this category. It would seem the gorgeous traditional animation of “Klaus” impressed the Academy's animation department, which is only a surprise because “Klaus” has been largely overlooked this Award Season. It's now undeniable that Netflix is an Oscar juggernaut, as they managed to make an oddity like “I Lost My Body” an actual nominee. (Though that means Netflix stole the Off-Beat Indie Cartoon slot away from GKIDS, who had a ton of wonderful options this year.) Weirdly, even though “Missing Link” is among Laika's weaker efforts, a palette that favors the quality of animation over the quality of story might make it the winner here. (Assuming the voters just don't say “Fuck it” and give it to Pixar.)
The Documentary and “International Feature” categories are harder to parse. If “Parasite” ends up becoming the Best Picture favorite, that might free up the Foreign Film category for another winner. “Les Miserables” – which isn't an adaptation of Victor Hugo's book – and “Pain and Glory” might be the runner-ups turned winner if that happens. (Though I still think “Parasite” is the pretty clear winner here.) This is the first I've heard of “Corpus Christi” but it sounds interesting, which aggravates me that it's one of the few nominees I won't see before the ceremony.
I think, for the first time in Oscar history, a movie has been nominated for both Best Foreign Language Film and Best Documentary. “Honeyland” scored that unlikely honor. The Documentary category ended up snubbing “Apollo 11,” cited as an early contender, leaving few obvious choices for a winner. “For Sama” has gotten a lot of attention, so maybe that one? Though “American Factory” and “The Edge of Democracy” are more timely, while “The Cave” seems the most topical of all the choices.
MISC.:
I fully expect “1917” to sweep the technical categories. Cinematography seems like an easy win for it. (Kudos on the Academy for acknowledging “The Lighthouse” in that category, destined to be one of the weirdest movies to ever be nominated for an Oscar.) It faces stiff competition in Visual Effects, from the likes of “Avengers: Endgame” and “Lion King,” and the Sound categories, from tightly produced features like “Ad Astra” and “Ford V. Ferari.” Weirdly, “1917” didn't get nominated for Best Editing, which seemed like an obvious choice.
Production Design probably will go to some sort of period piece, like “1917” or “The Irishman,” if that didn't seem to play a key role in “Parasite's” success. The colorful costumes of “Jojo Rabbit” seem to make it a likely winner for Costume Design, unless the gowns and period details of “Little Women” are irresistible to voters.
As has too often been the case recently, Best Makeup and Hairstyling is dominated by boring biopics and old age make-ups. “Maleficent: Mistress of Evil” is the only genre effort to be nominated in this category. Something boring like “Judy” or “Bombshell” will probably win. Though it wouldn't shock me if “Joker” wins since it's main character has face paint on and sometimes Oscar voters truly are that literal.
Since it actually worked out really well last year, the Academy Awards ceremony will go ahead without a host again. I couldn't be happier about that, as it resulted in last year's show being among the best pace and fastest moving I've ever seen. As has since become the tradition for me, I will be live-blogging the ceremony. I feel pretty positive heading into the show this year, which almost certainly means I'll have a miserable time. Regular readers know to expect that I will fill the next few weeks with as many reviews of the nominated films as possible. Lots of fun will be had, hopefully. Stay tuned, dear readers!
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